Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 30 Jul 2024, 15:50

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

July 30 - Stock trading was choppy early, with a negative bias developing by late morning following the release of several economic reports this morning, along with apprehension ahead of tomorrow's policy statement from the Federal Reserve. Wall Street is leaning hard into expectations of multiple rate cuts currently, leaving traders vulnerable in the event that the Fed disappoints with its comments. The VIX is back near 18 late-morning, while the dollar index is trading near 104.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%. Crude oil prices are 1% lower at seven-week lows, while the grain and oilseed sector is mostly lower as well, although coming well off its session lows as it did on Monday as well.

Soybean prices remain under the greatest pressure late-morning, along with weaker meal and oil prices as well. Crop models continue to call for above-trend yields in the United States due to favorable growing conditions amid soft demand and expectations that we will see further expansion of area planted in both Argentina and Brazil. Early indications are that farmers may reduce corn area planted by as much as 25 to 30% in Argentina due to poor economics and due to this past year's relatively new problem with a disease spread by the leafhopper insect. Many of those acres are expected to go into soybeans. Wheat prices remain under pressure due to weak global cash prices - particularly in the Black Sea Region. However, those prices appear to be stabilizing at these low levels, and we're at a time when farmer selling tends to slow, reducing the downward pressure. As such, we saw U.S. wheat prices finish the day in the green yesterday after a poor start, and they're already coming off their lows today as well as selling pressures ease relative to buying interest. Corn futures are caught in the middle without a story of their own, but recent lows have held thus far on the charts. StoneX's official corn and soybean yield estimates will be determined by our customer survey, the first of which will be released on Thursday afternoon of this week.

Today's JOLTS report revealed that there were 8.184 million job openings posted on June 28, beating analyst expectations of 8.0 million. Furthermore, the May numbers were revised upward to 8.230 million job openings, up from the 8.140 million originally reported. In reality, the number of new hires and the total separations were relatively unchanged in June at 5.3 million and 5.1 million respectively. There were 3.3 million quits in June, along with 1.5 million layoffs and discharges, which also was little changed from May.

The consumer confidence index rose to 100.3 for July, but that's only because the June index was revised down to 97.8, down from the 100.4 originally reported. The present situation index fell to 133.6, down from 135.3 the previous month. The expectations index rose to 78.2, up from 72.8 in June. Yet, that's still below 80, which historically has been an indicator of a coming recession. The cutoff date for the survey was July 22. Consumers were less pessimistic about the future, but more concerned about their present condition. Confidence is the highest among those consumers under 35 years of age. Twelve month inflation expectations remain stable at a high 5.4%, versus their peak of 7.9% two years ago. Half of the consumers surveyed expect higher interest rates over the coming year, although that number is trending lower. Yet, the most common write-in concerns included high prices, especially for food and groceries and overall inflation, followed by the U.S. political situation and the labor market.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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