By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
July 30 – Stocks are continuing their rebound into midday, with the major indexes all squarely in the green, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+2.9%) as Microsoft (+16.4%) is surging to a two-month high after yesterday’s earnings. The VIX is off sharply from yesterday as well, now hovering around the 18.3 level. The dollar is continuing its aggressive selloff after falling hard yesterday, pushing to a six-week low at 99.86 earlier in the session and bouncing back to sit just below 100 at the time of writing. Treasuries are off their highs of the day but continue to invert and remain elevated, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.204%, 10-year yields at 4.66%, and 2-year yields falling to 4.22%. Crude oil is having its most quiet session of the week, with nearby WTI off its morning lows but still in the red on the day, trading near $84.10, while nearby Brent hangs just below $87. The ags have turned mixed into midday, with corn in the red and the wheat complex losing steam but still up notably, while cattle futures are continuing to rebound as they look to find their following the recent slide.
U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in Q2, a notable slowdown from the 2.1% growth in Q1 and missing analyst estimates of holding steady at that level. While the headline was ugly, it was dragged down notably by an 11.5% surge in imports offsetting a 4.5% rise in exports, with the rising trade deficit knocking roughly 1% off of headline growth. Consumer spending rebounded to 3.2% growth in Q2 after a weak 0.5% in Q1, but questions regarding this sustainability remain as that was largely supported by a sharp reduction in savings rate, which fell to 2.8% in Q2 after sitting at 3.9% in Q1 and 5.0% in the same quarter last year. In fact, this is the lowest quarterly personal savings rate seen since Q2 2022, raising additional concerns amid the expected rebound in inflation in the months ahead. Sticking with that theme, the quarterly headline PCE price index rose 5.1% versus Q1, also not seen since Q2 2022. On a more positive note, core PCE prices rose by 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, a notable drop from the three-year high of 4.4% in Q1 but still elevated relative to recent years.
Personal income rose by 0.2% month-on-month in June, dropping notably from a 0.7% gain in May and falling below analyst estimates of a 0.3% rise. Headline personal spending rose by 0.3%, also a slowdown from a sharp 0.9% increase in May but matching analyst estimates. Adjusting for inflation, personal spending was up by 0.4% month-on-month, matching the pace seen in May, which was the strongest print seen since July 2025. Put simply, spending again outpaced income growth, with June’s saving rate falling to 2.7%, keeping present lingering concerns of sustainability amid an expected rise in cost pressures in the months ahead, especially with no end in sight to the conflict with Iran.
Exporters sold 14.3 million bushels of old crop corn in the week ended July 23rd, near the low-end of expectations, but an impressive 41.8 million bushels of new crop corn, above even the top-end estimate. Cumulative old crop (‘25/’26) corn sales now total 3.424 billion bushels, nearly 100 million ahead of USDA’s current 3.325-billion-bushel export target, meaning we should see additional increases to this estimate in the months ahead. Cumulative ‘26/’27 sales now sit at 339 million bushels, exactly where they were at this time last year, with USDA calling for a drop to 3.2 billion, a figure that may also prove understated if we see longer-term disruptions to transit via the Black Sea and ongoing support for increased ethanol usage keeping more corn at home in Brazil. Elsewhere, all wheat sales came in at 10.5 million bushels, right in the middle of the estimated range, led by a three-week high in hard red spring wheat sales; in that vein, durum sales of 0.7 million bushels were also a four-week high.
China was again the featured destination for new crop soybean sales, accounting for 19.1 million of the 49.0-million-bushel total. Adding to this, USDA also reported an additional 132k metric tons (4.85 million bushels) of new crop soybean flash sales to China this morning. Old crop soybean sales of 11.1 million bushels also came in above their top-end estimate in this morning’s report, spread across a wide range of destinations with Egypt at the top—China disappeared on old crop purchases for the first time since mid-June. Similar to the corn side, cumulative old crop soybean sales of 1.532 billion bushels have now surpassed USDA’s current export target of 1.520 billion. Cumulative new crop soybean sales are what to keep an eye on amid China’s return and robust domestic demand, now totaling 274 million bushels, more than double last year and marking a four-year high for new crop sales at this point in the year. Of that total, 102 million bushels are explicitly to China and 104 million are to unknown destinations. Obviously, this is still a very long way from the alleged 25 million metric ton (~919 million bushel) agreement but represents a meaningful uptick relative to recent history. China’s existing soybean stocks and ability to source cheaper supply from South America would argue against them needing to make additional large-scale purchases from the U.S., but it’s important to keep in mind this is being driven entirely by political favor, with China standing to gain significantly more from a normalization of trade relations with the U.S. than they would stand to lose by overpaying on these soybeans.
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Brazil's soybean exports are being redirected rather than reduced as China leans harder on U.S. beans. New buyers across Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia are picking up the cargoes that once headed to China.
July 31 – Stocks are looking to add to yesterday’s rebound, with futures pointing to positive opens across the board. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is looking to lead the way higher, with Amazon’s impressive earnings report after yesterday’s close possibly calming some of the nerves regarding the broader tech sector after the recent selloff. While topline revenue saw a solid beat, the biggest standout was the impressive performance of AWS, with sales seeing its fastest growth in four-and-a-half years, suggesting the company’s heavy AI infrastructure spending is translating into serious demand. As the AI buildout accelerates, the market is likely to draw an increasingly sharp distinction between companies converting these massive investments into earnings growth and those simply accumulating costs. The VIX is reflecting a cooling of fears on Wall Street as well, looking at a quiet start to the day as it sits near the 17.3 mark. The dollar is rebounding after tanking to a six-week low yesterday, trading at 100.34 this morning. Treasuries remain a concern for the market, though they are looking to reverse some of the sharp inversions seen this week, as 30-year yields remain near their 19-year highs, trading at 5.226% at the time of writing, while 10-year yields are flirting with an 18-month high as they trade at 4.70%, and 2-year yields have pushed to trade just below 4.29%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the day, with nearby WTI up 1.6% to trade near $85.30 and nearby Brent up 1.7% to trade near $88.40. The ags are looking at a mixed open, with the wheat complex taking back some of yesterday's gains despite fresh escalations between Russia and Ukraine.
July 30 – Stocks are continuing their rebound into midday, with the major indexes all squarely in the green, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+2.9%) as Microsoft (+16.4%) is surging to a two-month high after yesterday’s earnings. The VIX is off sharply from yesterday as well, now hovering around the 18.3 level. The dollar is continuing its aggressive selloff after falling hard yesterday, pushing to a six-week low at 99.86 earlier in the session and bouncing back to sit just below 100 at the time of writing. Treasuries are off their highs of the day but continue to invert and remain elevated, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.204%, 10-year yields at 4.66%, and 2-year yields falling to 4.22%. Crude oil is having its most quiet session of the week, with nearby WTI off its morning lows but still in the red on the day, trading near $84.10, while nearby Brent hangs just below $87. The ags have turned mixed into midday, with corn in the red and the wheat complex losing steam but still up notably, while cattle futures are continuing to rebound as they look to find their following the recent slide.
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