Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 31 Jul 2023, 16:21

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

July 31 - Stocks are quietly mixed to close out the month of July, with the VIX still trading below 14 at midday, reflecting relative optimism on the Street. The dollar index is trading near 101.7 at midday, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.95% and yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.87%. The energy is in the crude oil market, with prices up another 1% at fresh 15-month highs - something the Federal Reserve will likely take note of in the weeks ahead. However, the grain and oilseed sector is under heavy pressure to close out the month.

Soybean, wheat, and corn prices are all posting roughly 3 - 5% losses at midday. Buyers have stepped away from the market to allow prices to come to them. Export demand remains relatively weak, Midwest weather is improving, and traders lack fresh supportive headlines from the Ukraine war. Momentum-trading Algos are piling on as well, allowing the market to hit an air pocket below Friday's values. Feeder cattle are the exception in the Ags, rallying in response to cheaper feed prices.

USDA inspected 20.6 million bushels of corn for export in the week ending July 27, as shown below, along with 12.1 million bushels of soybeans, 2.8 million bushels of grain sorghum, and 21.4 million bushels of wheat. The weekly wheat shipment total was the highest in five months, while the weekly soybean shipment total was the highest in 12 weeks, and the corn shipments the highest in four weeks. Yet, they remain disappointing overall. The portion of the above that was designated for shipment to China included 5.1 million bushels of wheat, 2.7 million bushels of grain sorghum, just 0.2 million bushels of soybeans, and again zero corn destined for China. Marketing year to date corn inspections now total just 1.370 billion bushels, which is down 33% from the previous year's pace, and down 60 million bushels from the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's recently lowered target. USDA has already taken 750 million bushels off this year's export target, and it likely will need to take a bit more off before the marketing year ends a month from now. Somehow, it expects next year's exports to regain 450 million bushels of the business, but new-crop sales remain dead - a fraction of what we'd normally see on the books by now. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.856 billion bushels, down 4% from the previous year's pace, but up 23 million from the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target, although that surplus continues to dissipate.

The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 42.8 in July, up from 41.5 previously, but not as strong as the 43.5 expected by analysts. Either way, it still shows month-on-month contraction for the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region, albeit at a slightly improved rate. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey produced a general activity index of -20, which again reflects month-on-month contraction for the sector in the Dallas Federal Reserve district. However, that is slightly better than the previous reading of -23.2, and better than analyst expectations of -22.5. The survey's production index came in at -4.8, down from -4.2 previously. The manufacturing sector of our economy remains in a recession, as the broader economy remains somewhat resilient. The key data point this week comes out on Friday when we'll get the government's monthly jobs report.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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