Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 7

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Thu, 07 May 2026, 16:44

May 7 – A more cautious tone has settled in at midday, with stocks paring early session gains as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both turn into the red while the tech-heavy Nasdaq clings to small gains and the VIX remains relatively muted as it trades near the 17.5 level. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghei told Tasnim News today that “Iran has not yet reached a final conclusion, and no response has been given to the American side,” in reference to the one-page U.S. proposal to end hostilities. There have been unconfirmed reports of Iran rejecting the proposal while details of alleged rules laid out by Iran’s newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” for vessels transiting the Strait are also being circulated. In short, the fog of war remains, with earnings strength and largely positive U.S. economic data underpinning an optimistic sentiment on Wall Street, but uncertainty regarding the potential end to the conflict providing some amount of headwind. Elsewhere, the dollar remains very quiet, sitting just below unchanged on the day to trade near 97.94. Treasuries have moved narrowly into the green at midday, with 10-year yields climbing above 4.37% and 2-year yields pushing above 3.89%. Crude oil prices have pared morning losses amid the cautious tone settling in, with nearby WTI still in the red but now down only ~1.8% on the day as it trades near $94.50 while Brent futures are now down only 1.5% to trade at $99.75. The ags are mostly sharply lower at midday, led down by an ugly selloff in KC wheat, though both soybean meal and lean hog futures continue to cling to small gains.

Construction spending in the U.S. rose 0.6% month-over-month in March, well above the expected 0.2% gain and marking the first monthly expansion seen since December. The uptick was driven by a 0.8% monthly gain in private construction more than offsetting a 0.2% monthly decline in public construction. By segment, the overall strength was driven by residential construction, up 1.7% month-over-month, primarily in new single-family projects (+2.7%), more than offsetting a 0.2% drop in non-residential structures.

Consumer inflation expectations continue to rise, with this morning’s release from the New York Fed showing an uptick in median year-ahead expectations to 3.6% in April. This is up from 3.4% in March and is now tied with March/April 2025 for the highest readings since the tail-end of 2023. We’ll get another update on consumer sentiment with the more closely watched University of Michigan Survey of Consumers preliminary May data due out tomorrow morning.

U.S. exporters sold only 5.2 million bushels of old crop (‘25/’26) soybeans in the week ending April 30^th, coming in below the low-end trade estimate of 7.3 million and representing a new marketing year low. Cumulative marketing-year-to-date soybean sales sit at only 1.430 billion bushels, down 18.2% year-over-year and a further 25.2% below the previous five-year average for this point in time, continuing to lag the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s now 13-year low export target of 1.540 billion bushels. Simply put, it’s hard to see much more export demand for old crop soybean exports from the U.S. amid record supplies of cheaper South American beans, barring them being included in a potential trade deal with China at next week’s Trump/Xi meeting. However, it’s crucial to note that while export demand for U.S. soybeans is dismal, it’s also not as important to the balance sheet as it once was, with record (and still expanding) domestic crush now being the dominant demand category, accounting for 61.2% of total U.S. soybean demand in the current marketing year, easily a new high for the 2000’s.

Weekly old crop corn sales of 53.6 million bushels were in line with expectations, pushing cumulative marketing-year-to-date corn sales past the 3-billion-bushel mark for the first time in history as we continue on the path to easily set a new all-time high for U.S. corn exports in the ‘25/’26 marketing year. USDA has raised their estimate for ‘25/’26 corn exports five times since their initial 2.675 billion bushels to now sit at 3.300 billion bushels; barring a major slowdown in sales and inspections in the weeks/months ahead, don’t be surprised if they’re forced to increase yet again. All wheat sales for ‘25/’26 fell to a five-week low at 2.9 million bushels, but new crop (‘26/’27) sales of 6.9 million bushels offset that weakness, with the combined total effectively falling right in the middle of the expected range. USDA may also be forced to raise their current ‘25/’26 wheat export target from its current 900 million bushels, but it’s also worth keeping in mind that ‘26/’27 export ideas may be a bit light given the recent rally making the U.S. look expensive relative to our competitors (though this week’s sharp losses are shifting that calculus a bit). Net milo (sorghum) sales fell to zero in the week ending April 30^th, the lowest since mid-November.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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