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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 4

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

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November 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged higher on the election results this morning, with the Nasdaq and the S&P close behind. There were initial concerns for tech companies regarding increased regulation of AI by a Democratic congress, but Wall Street loves a gridlocked government. Gridlock means that nothing gets done that can hurt the economy, which is doing quite well right now overall - albeit segments are hurting. Furthermore, prospects for peace in the Middle East have crude oil prices dropping sharply once again, with crude oil supplies actually exceeding demand at times in recent weeks. Meanwhile, corn and wheat prices found modest support on ideas that a Democratic Congress will lean more supportive of Ukraine, which could escalate the conflict in the Black Sea, keeping commodity shipments out of that region restricted for a while longer. Elevated hopes for peace in recent weeks had been tied to perceptions that President Trump was establishing more of a working relationship with Russia, at a perceived expense of Ukraine. That may change now following the elections.

The VIX is trading near 17 at this hour, as stocks push notably higher, down from its high just below 24 on Friday, while the dollar index trades near its session highs - albeit still down on the day - near 101.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.90%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.58% - both rather calmly today following the election, with little actually changing in the economy to this point, and the U.S. economy still being the choice place to invest. WTI crude oil prices are near $89 per barrel, with Brent trading near $94. The soybean complex is weaker, while corn and wheat prices are mostly higher.

The November StoneX customer survey pegged this year's U.S. corn yield at 183.1 bushels per acre, up from 182.1 bushels in October, and up from USDA's October estimate of 181.2 bushels per acre. USDA raised its estimate to that level from 178.8 bpa (corrected for clerical error) the previous month. The graphic below shows USDA's track record for corn yield changes in its November WASDE crop report since 1993. It shows some big yield adjustments in November over the years, although those changes have been a bit more modest in recent years. I looked back at all of the years to find that USDA raised its national average corn yield 17 times in the October WASDE crop report. Out of those 17 years, it raised it again in the November report 12 times by an average of 1.86 bushels, although the bulk of those larger increases were in the earlier years. That doesn't dictate what USDA will do in this year's November WASDE - set to be released next Tuesday - but it does show a historical pattern. Will this year follow the pattern, or be the exception? The StoneX survey suggests that it will follow the pattern, but USDA will have the last say. USDA typically does not adjust its production estimate again until January following the November adjustment.

The StoneX customer survey pegged this year's national soybean yield at 55.0 bushels per acre, up from 54.1 bpa the previous month, and above USDA's October estimate of 53.1 bpa. So what will USDA do next Tuesday when it releases its November report? USDA raised its U.S. soybean yield 13 times in its October WASDE report since 1993 - the last time prior to this year being in 2021. It raised its yield again in the November report in 11 of those years - the last being in 2016. The average increase in those 11 years was .82 bushels per acre. Again, that doesn't dictate what USDA will do this year, but it does reflect a trend.

 

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