Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 5

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 05 Nov 2021, 16:17

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 5 - Stocks surged to new record highs today, fueled by this morning's positive jobs report and by speculation about who will serve the next term as Federal Reserve Chair. Reports emerged this morning that President Biden met with both the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Thursday as he mulls his nomination decision. Powell has leaned increasingly dovish through his term, while Brainard is said to be even more of a dove on monetary policy. That means the easy-money policy is likely to continue, with the Fed trying to hold down interest rates for the foreseeable future. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell to 1.45% in the past hour - their lowest since late September, leading to a softer dollar in the process as well.

Crude oil prices are more than 3% higher at midday, while the Ags are mixed to lower. Buyers were quick to emerge when the sell-off in Minneapolis wheat paused at chart support, leading to a quick bounce. The grain and oilseeds otherwise remain in the red ahead of Tuesday's big USDA WASDE crop report. Live cattle are roughly $1 higher on the strengthening cash market, while the opposite is true in the lean hog market. Packer constraints are a concern for hogs over the next 30 - 60 days, while feeders appear to be garnering greater leverage in the cattle market.

Soybean prices continue to lose ground, relative to corn prices. Projected ending stocks for the current year are at 8.5% of anticipated use, which is smaller than the 10.6% stocks-to-use level that I projected for current year corn stocks that I covered in yesterday's commentary. Yet, Brazil will be harvesting what currently appears to be a big soybean crop in January and February, with global acreage expected to climb in 2022 at the expense of corn due to high input costs. As such, the market is selling soybeans relative to corn to narrow the new-crop soybean/corn price ratio. You'll note below that I have a modestly higher crush target for the current year, as production of renewable fuels increases demand for soyoil. Yet, my export target is 45 million bushels below USDA's current target due to soft demand from China. If anything, I'm likely too optimistic on the export target, with the possibility that we could see it fall another 50 - 100 million bushels if the shipment pace doesn't show more energy over the next 60 days. It wouldn't take much to swell soybean ending stocks well into the 400+ million-bushel range in the coming months. Obviously, a short South American crop could change that in the opposite direction as well, but Brazil's crop thus far looks good early in the growing season, with Argentina still getting timely rains to start its growing season.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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