Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 10 Oct 2022, 16:34

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

October 10 - Nerves are high on Wall Street today after Russia engaged in its most aggressive air attack against Ukraine since the start of the war, attacking civilian targets and infrastructure in the process and raising questions about how far President Putin might go to turn the momentum back his way. Stocks are under modest pressure at midday due to the uncertainty, while the VIX trades above 33 reflecting the elevated levels of fear on Wall Street. The dollar index is also firmer, trading near 113.2 at midday. Treasuries are not trading today due to the Columbus Day holiday, but 10-year Treasuries settled Friday at 3.88%, while 2-year Treasuries did so at 4.31%. Crude oil prices remain modestly lower on the day, while the grain and oilseed markets are mainly sharply higher as traders add a war premium to prices.

Wheat prices led the way higher for the Ags today, approaching their 70-cent daily limit, with traders worried about how the escalation of the war over the weekend might interrupt shipments of wheat from the region. Corn is another commodity that is at risk of seeing shipments shutdown. Soybeans are less affected, but they bounced off chart gap support on Friday, and the risk of other edible oils like sunflower oil being negatively impacted was excuse enough to see soybeans see a short-covering bounce, with prices bouncing following the sharp slide of the past several weeks. Unlike corn and wheat, soybeans are struggling to hold gains, lacking the same strength of fundamentals perceived to be in corn and wheat currently.

USDA lowered its corn yield nearly 3 bushels per acre in September to 172.5 bpa. It previously lowered its corn yield 15 times in September over the past three decades. It's yield was lowered again in October in 7 of those 15 years, while being raised in October 7 times and remaining unchanged in October once. The years that it was lowered again in October included 1993, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2012, 2016, and 2020. It was raised in October after being lowered in September in 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2008, 2015, and in 2019. Our StoneX customer survey, which is our official estimate, increased 0.7 bushel this month to 173.9 bpa. The average trade guess going into Wednesday's report shows an expectation that the yield will decline to 171.8, down from 172.5 bpa in September. The range of trade expectations for Wednesday's WASDE report stretches from 170.1 bpa on the low end to StoneX's 173.9 bpa on the high end.

USDA lowered its soybean yield 1.4 bushels to 50.5 bpa in September. It had lowered its soybean yield in the September WASDE report 11 times previously over the past three decades. Of those times, it lowered it again in October 4 times, and it raised it 4 times, and left it unchanged one time. The times that it lowered the yield in both September and in October included 1999, 2000, 2003, and 2008. The year that it raised the yield in October after lowering it in September included 1996, 2001, 2004, and 2012. Our StoneX customer survey pegged the crop at 51.3 bpa in October, down 0.5 bushels from the previous month. The average trade guess ahead of Wednesday's USDA WASDE report puts the yield at 50.6 bpa, up slightly. from 50.5 bpa the previous month. The range of yield estimates submitted stretched from 49.8 bpa on the low end to StoneX's estimate at 51.3 bpa.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Energy
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Renewable Fuels
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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