Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 24 Oct 2023, 15:54

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

October 24 - Stocks maintained a positive tone through the morning today, as traders take comfort in the end of the big bond sell-off. The VIX is trading near 19 at midday, while the dollar index is trading stronger near 106.2 as the euro breaks lower on the global currency market. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.86% at midday, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 5.11%. Crude oil prices are 2% lower as traders focus more on economic concerns today than on war risks to supply in the Middle East. Grain and oilseed prices are mixed to mostly lower in relatively quiet trade.

The PMI composite index flash estimate for October came in at 51.0, suggesting very modest growth for the economy. The manufacturing index came in at 50.0, suggesting neither growth nor contraction, but slightly above analyst expectations of 49.5. The services sector index came in at 50.9, beating analyst expectations of 49.4. In other words, we're actually seeing slight growth in the service sector this month rather than the slight contraction expected. That was also confirmed by the Richmond Fed manufacturing index of 3, down from 5 the previous month, but a number above zero here still suggests month-on-month growth. In other words, the economy may be stagnating, but it remains resilient and continues to evade the recession predicted by so many over the past 18 months.

Center-West Brazil produces the greatest amount of corn and soybeans, focused primarily on the large state of Mato Grosso (circled below), which is 1.3 times the area of the state of Texas. The graphic on the left below shows rainfall over the past seven days, for South America. Notice that it's been mostly dry over the past week in Mato Grosso and surrounding areas. Soybean planting is delayed somewhat as a result. StoneX Brazil reports that 27% of Brazil's soybean crop was planted as of Friday, down from 36% the previous year when planting was at a fairly normal pace. Dry soils are the primary reason for the delays. The graphic to the right below shows forecast rains over the next seven days, with much of the dry area expected to get 1 - 2" of rainfall. That will provided much needed relief if it verifies, but recent rainfall forecasts have disappointed. Normal rainfall for this time a year in Mato Grosso is roughly 1.35" per week, and that continues to ramp up as we head into the Southern Hemisphere summer. StoneX Brazil currently indicates that the delays are not a problem as long as the forecast rains verify and planting rapidly catches up again. As such, that will be one of the primary market focuses over the next week to 10 days. The delays are primarily a concern for timely planting of the safrinha corn crop following soybean harvest. The delays to this point do not yet present a risk for delayed corn planting in February, but that is something that we will continue to monitor.

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