Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 24 Oct 2025, 15:49

Today's Perspective Video: November WASDE is at Risk

October 24 – This morning’s softer than expected CPI print was a breath of fresh air for Wall Street, pushing the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones to new all-time highs today as rate cut expectations at next week’s FOMC meeting now look all but certain. It’s also raising expectations for an additional cut at the subsequent December meeting, with CME’s FedWatch showing the probability of such a cut at roughly 96% today, up another 5% from yesterday. That breath of fresh air appears to be combined with a sigh of relief for Wall Street as well, with the VIX falling notably today to a two-week low around 16.4 at the time of writing. The dollar is hovering near unchanged on the day, currently sitting slightly in the green around 98.97. Treasuries are seeing a similarly quiet day, with 10-year yields trading at almost exactly 4.00% while 2-year yields trade at 3.48%. Crude oil is looking to move higher for the fourth consecutive session amid the ongoing bullishness surrounding new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top two producers, with nearby WTI trading at $62.30/barrel at mid-day, up over 11% from Monday’s low. Meanwhile, the ags appear to be in a bit of a quiet risk-off mode heading into the weekend after solid weekly gains as optimism abounds ahead of upcoming trade talks between the U.S. and China.

However, we may not get October inflation data if the government shutdown continues much longer, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned this morning. Today’s September data was able to be published due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics recalling some staff two weeks ago in order to assist the Social Security Administration with their annual cost of living adjustment for 2026. If the October report is canceled, it would be the first time in history not seeing a monthly U.S. CPI report since its inception back in 1919. Hopefully we can see an end to the shutdown to prevent a cancellation in favor of a delay like today’s release.

S&P Global’s Composite PMI Flash reading rose to 54.8 in October from 53.9 in the month prior, beating analysts' expectations and marking the strongest reading since July. This was driven mainly by sharply better than expected service sector performance, with Services PMI coming in at 55.2, above even the top-end estimate of 54.6 and marking the strongest reading since July. The manufacturing side was less impressive but still beat expectations of holding steady at September’s 52.0 by rising to 52.2. Given the absence of most government data amid the ongoing shutdown, these private sector readings continue to be watched more closely to give traders fresh insight into the health of the U.S. economy. Today’s PMI reading adds further optimism to this morning’s better than expected inflation print.

However, U.S. consumer sentiment took a step back according to this morning’s final October reading from the University of Michigan. The headline Consumer Sentiment reading fell to 53.6, down from October’s preliminary 55.0 that analysts expected to hold and marking the softest reading seen since May. Both the Current Economic Conditions Index and Index of Consumer Expectations fell from their preliminary readings, with the former dropping from 61.0 to 58.6 and the latter dropping from 51.2 to 50.3. Notably, this is the weakest Current Economic Conditions reading seen since August 2022; the interesting thing to keep an eye on is whether or not this pessimism actually translates to a slowdown in consumer spending moving forward.

Consumer inflation expectations diverged, with one-year expectations cooling to 4.6% from 4.7% previously while five-year expectations rose to 3.9% from 3.7% previously. This paints an interesting picture, with consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations now at their lowest in three months while five-year inflation expectations are at their highest in four months. It’s interesting to see these two metrics continue moving in opposite directions—both well above realized CPI readings. The Fed continues to maintain their commitment to a 2.0% inflation mandate, but both Wall Street (traders) and Main Street (consumers) continue to have a hard time believing that. With today’s CPI report marking the 54^th consecutive month above said 2.0% mandate, it’s not hard to understand why.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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