StoneX logo
Contact us

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 29

Mike Castle
Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Add us as preferred source on Google

October 29 – Stocks remain squarely in the red at midday with Alphabet’s Q3 cash burn reigniting AI spending fears, leading the tech heavy Nasdaq to lead the major indexes lower, while better-than-expected U.S. economic growth and accelerating inflation in September reinforcing fears of a hawkish Fed moving forward. Despite the ugly selloff, the VIX has cooled through the day to near a two-week low, trading at 16.3 at midday. The dollar is still in the red, hovering near 102.02 at the time of writing. Treasury yields have fallen through the session as well, with 2-year yields off 7-basis points on the day to trade at 4.662%, 10-year yields off 5-basis points to trade at 4.995%, and 30-year yields off just under 3-basis points to trade at 5.335%. Crude oil is having a quiet day, with nearby WTI down 0.9% to trade near $101 and nearby Brent down 1.5% to trade near $109.90. The ags have turned largely mixed into midday, with the wheat complex finding some strength following a sharp uptick in U.S. export sales and renewed rumblings of Chinese inquiries into U.S. soft red winter wheat (a rumor that’s been circulating in the cash trade for quite some time now but saw headlines hit Bloomberg this morning).

U.S. GDP rose by an annualized 3.4% in the third quarter, beating expectations of a 3.2% rise, accelerating notably from the 2.2% seen in the second quarter, and marking the strongest quarter of growth since Q3 of 2025. The headline strength was influenced heavily by the surge in business investment amid the ongoing AI buildout, with private domestic investment jumping 19.4% quarter-on-quarter. Investment in nonresidential equipment surged 20.9% in Q3, the largest jump since the pandemic; excluding the skewed pandemic recovery, this would be the strongest print since Q3 of 2011. Interestingly, the only private investment category to see a decline in Q3 was residential investment, falling 3.3%, a reversal from the 2.8% gain in Q2 which represented the first expansion in a year-and-a-half. What’s also notable is the resilience in headline GDP growth despite the drag from the widening trade deficit, with exports falling 5.7% from Q2 while imports jumped 19.7%. Overall, headline U.S. economic strength continues to look solid enough to dispel any hesitancy from the Fed for continuing their path of higher for longer rates, particularly with underlying domestic demand and investment doing so much of the heavy lifting.

U.S. consumer spending held steady in Q3, with quarterly real personal consumption expenditures up 3.8%, tying Q2 for the strongest print since Q4 of 2024. This was a function of stronger spending on services, accelerating to 4.1% in Q3 from the 3.4% seen in Q2 and marking the highest since Q2 of 2022, while goods spending slowed to 3.0% growth from the 4.5% seen in Q2, with the bigger drop being in durable goods (+2.3% in Q3 versus +7.4% in Q2) while nondurable goods accelerated to 3.4% from the 3.1% seen in the previous quarter. While today’s September PCE data showed a notable acceleration in inflationary pressures, the quarterly PCE price figures came in quite benign, a welcomed sigh of relief. Headline quarterly PCE prices rose only 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, sharply below the expected 2.6% and Q2’s 5.0%, marking the lowest gain seen in two years. Core PCE prices were up 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, however, coming in above the average analyst estimate of 2.4% but still a slowdown from Q2’s 3.3% rise and marking the lowest since Q4 of last year.

Weekly corn and soybean export sales remained strong on this morning’s report for the week ended October 22, coming in at 51.3 and 94.7 million bushels, respectively. This was a slight step back from the week prior on both, but near the top-end of the expected ranges, with buyers coming back in from the sidelines following the break lower in prices. Cumulative corn sales continue to lag the pace needed to reach USDA’s now higher 3.300-billion-bushel export target, with the current 925 million bushels trailing last year by 33.5%, an improvement after back-to-back solid weeks of sales but still the slowest pace of sales in three years. It will be important to see continued progress following this drop in prices in the weeks/months ahead, or we’ll run the risk of seeing USDA be forced to walk that export target back. On the soybean side, however, cumulative sales of 1.057 remain off to a red hot start amid the resurgence of large-scale Chinese buying, up 80.4% year-on-year and maintaining the strongest pace seen in four years.

Weekly all wheat export sales surged to a marketing year high of 31.2 million bushels in the week ended October 22, sharply above the top-end analyst estimate of 18.4 million and marking the biggest week of wheat sales since last November. Breaking this down by class, white wheat sales jumped to 14.6 million bushels, their largest in weekly total in just over a year, while hard red spring wheat sales of 11.8 million bushels were their largest weekly total since November 2022. Cumulative 2026/27 U.S. wheat export sales had slipped to their slowest pace on record last week, but today’s jump pushes the total to 423 million bushels, still down 29.4% versus last year’s hot pace, but pulling back ahead of 2023/24’s pace by 3.9%. The sharp break lower in prices is clearly bringing buyers around the world back to the table, but it will be interesting to see if this week was a one-off or if this strength can continue given the ongoing disruption to supply from the Black Sea and various quality issues arising in other notable origins.

image 139819

image 139820

  • Grains & Oilseeds

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 30

October 30 – Nasdaq futures are pointing to a sharply lower open following yesterday’s third quarter earnings results from Amazon and Intel, acting as a drag on the broader equities sector to start the day. Despite solid earnings and growth, both companies are seeing widely negative response to their third quarter results as investors become much less tolerant of deteriorating cash flow and seemingly endlessly higher capex requirements amid the ongoing AI buildout. The strong results from AWS and Intel's data center business reinforce the underlying AI infrastructure boom, but the negative stock reactions suggest investors are demanding clearer evidence that hundreds of billions of dollars in AI spending will translate into sustainable returns, especially in the context of higher interest rates. Amazon shares are down close to 7% while Intel is down nearly 25% in pre-market trading, highlighting the resurgent jitters in the sector. Earnings season will continue for big tech next week as well, with Apple, Palantir, AMD, and Qualcomm all reporting between Monday (11/2) and Wednesday (11/4), giving traders a fresh look at AI capex and their subsequent impact on revenue and margin growth and keeping this conversation in focus on Wall Street.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Weather in the coming months: what to expect and what to do · November 2026 to January 2027

Based on forecasts from leading meteorological institutes and past El Niño events, see what to expect from rainfall and heat from November to January in Brazil and worldwide, and the potential impacts on commodities.

Carolina Giraldo
Carolina Giraldo
  • Coffee
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 29

October 29 – Stocks remain squarely in the red at midday with Alphabet’s Q3 cash burn reigniting AI spending fears, leading the tech heavy Nasdaq to lead the major indexes lower, while better-than-expected U.S. economic growth and accelerating inflation in September reinforcing fears of a hawkish Fed moving forward. Despite the ugly selloff, the VIX has cooled through the day to near a two-week low, trading at 16.3 at midday. The dollar is still in the red, hovering near 102.02 at the time of writing. Treasury yields have fallen through the session as well, with 2-year yields off 7-basis points on the day to trade at 4.662%, 10-year yields off 5-basis points to trade at 4.995%, and 30-year yields off just under 3-basis points to trade at 5.335%. Crude oil is having a quiet day, with nearby WTI down 0.9% to trade near $101 and nearby Brent down 1.5% to trade near $109.90. The ags have turned largely mixed into midday, with the wheat complex finding some strength following a sharp uptick in U.S. export sales and renewed rumblings of Chinese inquiries into U.S. soft red winter wheat (a rumor that’s been circulating in the cash trade for quite some time now but saw headlines hit Bloomberg this morning).

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: Your access to global markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.