Canada Know-Risk Weekly Agricultural Market Update 9-18-26
Canada Know-Risk Weekly Agricultural Market Update 9-18-26
Jason Labossiere
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 17
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
September 17 - Stocks turned lower Wednesday as the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023. Even so, the Fed signaled via its dot plot graphic that at least one more hike is likely, and other central banks seem to be following suit due to rising global inflation as energy prices soar. Those higher energy prices first show themselves at the pump, but they spread to other sectors of the economy with time, as energy goes into the cost and transportation of nearly everything we consume in one way or the other. The Fed focuses primarily on core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors, even though those are the sectors that the typical consumer focuses on the most. High energy prices first show up in the core producer price index - inflation at the wholesale or producer level - before making their way into the consumer core inflation numbers in the months that follow, as Mike has revealed in his recent commentary.
But stocks rallied today on expectations that the central banks will get inflation under control, aided by the fact that Saudi Arabia revealed that it is about to reopen one of the two pipelines damaged by a recent Houthi attack along Saudi's East-West pipline. Yes, that pipeline is actually two pipes - one 56" and the other 48" in diameter - that run parallel to each other. Apparently one wasn't damaged as badly as the other. Regardless, the graphic below shows a new tick downward in inflation expectations. The 10-year correlation between inflation expectations and the five-year breakeven inflation rate is 0.78, which is considered to be significant. Money flow both in and out of the commodities tends to have a two to three month lag to those expectations. Speculative money historically has tended to flow into the commodities - especially the grain and oilseeds and energy sectors - when inflation expectations are rising, and flow out of those sectors when the reverse is true. Speculative money also tends to believe that central banks will will push rates too high, resulting in a recession and a drop in commodity demand. One day does not a trend make, and I certainly believe that the current two wars on commodity logistics in the Middle East and the Black Sea will continue for a while, but for today the combination of the above resulted in negative money flow for many of the commodities.
Stocks rebounded today on hopes that the Fed will bring inflation under control, resulting in the VIX slipping back below 16, while the dollar maintained strength near 100.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries pulled back below the 5% level to trade near 4.94%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 4.68%. WTI crude oil is trading near $101 after briefly probing below $100 per barrel, while Brent trades near $103 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex is mostly lower. The exception is soymeal that finds support from unwinding crush spreads, with soybean oil under pressure amid some west coast biomass diesel production problems. The corn and soybean harvest has been slowed in western areas of the Midwest due to rain, but it's advancing more quickly in other areas missing the rains. That always brings some bushels to the market. This month's Russian wheat exports have been roughly 40% of normal, focusing on the Caspian Sea and on the Baltic ports, while Ukraine wheat and corn exports have been near zero. Yet, we still have too much wheat in the United States and cheaper alternative sources are currently filling the void to this point.
- Grains & Oilseeds
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 18
September 18 – Stock futures were firm and commodity prices initially again weaker this morning as Wall Street prepares for another weekend when the headlines will continue to flow while the markets are closed. Commodity weakness ahead of the weekend fits a recent pattern for Friday trade. Global energy deficit fears continue to ease as we head into the weekend as Saudi Arabia partially restores flow along its east-west pipeline, and flow through the Strait of Hormuz may be improving. In fact, some reports suggest that ship-to-ship transfers may be moving more than 7 million barrels a day now out of the Gulf, with that number continuing to rise. Global central banks are attacking inflation, although questions remain regarding the effectiveness of those efforts amid high energy prices.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 17
September 17 - Stocks turned lower Wednesday as the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023. Even so, the Fed signaled via its dot plot graphic that at least one more hike is likely, and other central banks seem to be following suit due to rising global inflation as energy prices soar. Those higher energy prices first show themselves at the pump, but they spread to other sectors of the economy with time, as energy goes into the cost and transportation of nearly everything we consume in one way or the other. The Fed focuses primarily on core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors, even though those are the sectors that the typical consumer focuses on the most. High energy prices first show up in the core producer price index - inflation at the wholesale or producer level - before making their way into the consumer core inflation numbers in the months that follow, as Mike has revealed in his recent commentary.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.