Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 08 Sep 2021, 16:03

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 8 - Stocks extended their losses this morning as traders fretted about a slowdown in economic growth following Friday's disappointing jobs report, with the tech sector leading the way lower today. The VIX is trading near 19 as we approach midday, while the dollar index is trading above 92.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 1.35%. Crude oil prices are more than 1% higher as refineries open up again following Hurricane Ida, while the Ags are mixed. Wheat prices remain under pressure today, while corn and soybean prices are rebounding from recent sharp losses ahead of Friday's USDA monthly WASDE report. The protein complex traded mixed to firm this morning, with early cash cattle trade steady to firm at $123 to $124 per cwt on a live basis. Recently released July export data showed the third largest beef export total ever at 297 million pounds, with China setting a record at 51 million pounds. However, it also confirmed that Chinese demand for U.S. pork is in decline.

Open job postings hit another record 10.934 million openings in July, beating the average analyst estimate of 10.00 million by nearly 10%. Furthermore, the June openings number was revised up to 10.185 million, up from the initial estimate of 10.073 million openings. The JOLTS data is delayed by a month, but it suggests that the August employment report released last week showing a disappointing number of jobs created was not due to a lack of demand for labor. Rather, it suggests that any slowdown in the economic growth rate is at least partially due to a lack of available labor supply. The job openings are a product of an economy trying to grow, as firms seek employees to support that growth. Their inability to fill the positions restricts intended growth. Some of that inability to fill positions has arguably been due to the supplemental federal unemployment benefits that ended this week. Studies have established that. Some of it is due to workers not meeting job skill requirements, while some of it is also due to aging workers retiring sooner due to the recent performance of their 401Ks. There are various reasons for the worker shortage. But the reality is that it has become a restricting factor for the growth of the U.S. economy.

Grain and oilseed traders are closely monitoring the return of export shipments through the ports of New Orleans. A few terminals suffered structural damage, which was largely conveyer belts stretching across channels, etc. Those are currently being replaced amid optimism that we should see significant progress over the coming week. Most terminals had relatively minor damage that has already been repaired, or close to being repaired. At least a couple of terminals are already operating normally, with the river also open for barge and ship traffic. Remaining terminals are waiting for power to be restored before they can resume operations. The below map from Entergy New Orleans, LLC provides estimated remaining wait times for the restoration of power. Note that many of the remaining grain terminals are looking at another two days perhaps for power restoration, which is certainly better than the two to three weeks, or more, that some locations deeper in the city will have to wait. Look for basis and spreads to soon reflect exporter efforts to catch up with lost shipment time through the ports of New Orleans.

Estimated days before power restored to New Orleans port locations. SOURCE: Entergy New Orleans, LLC

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Energy
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Meats & Livestock
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