Perspective: Morning Commentary December 2

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 02 Dec 2025, 14:27

December 2 – Stock futures edged quietly higher overnight, as investors remained focused on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate again when it meets next week. The VIX slipped below 17 this morning, while the dollar index traded near 99.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries continued yesterday’s rally, trading near 4.11%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 3.55%. Crude oil prices slipped back below $59 per barrel on signs that we’re moving closer to a peace agreement in the Black Sea Region that could reduce sanctions on Russian oil, while the grain and oilseed sector was mixed in overnight trade.

China issued new rare earth export licenses to three Chinese companies this week, according to Reuters. The companies are allowed to export rare earth minerals and magnets to many of their U.S. customers – many of which are in the auto manufacturing sector. The new licenses are part of an agreement reached between President Trump and President Xi in late October after President Trump threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods entering the country if China went forward with its plan to block exports of rare earths. China started restricting exports last spring, but moved to totally block exports in early October, leading to Trump’s tariff threat. Europe continues to battle with Beijing over its restrictions on exports of rare earths to its companies. This week’s license approvals still do not eliminate the problem, but they do ease tensions with the United States a bit. Many companies still do not have access to the rare earth minerals and magnets essential for manufacturing consumer goods, and there is every indication that China is doing everything that it can to prevent the export of rare earths to any company possessing defense contracts. This continues to give China the ability to pick which countries can manufacture weapons needed to defend themselves, while continuing to influence which countries can manufacture today’s high tech consumer goods. The national security aspect of these restrictions remain a point of contention that could trigger another blowup in U.S. / China relations, but for now both sides seem to be willing to do what it takes to “get along” while focusing on calming some of the troubled waters at home.

A Russia-connected tanker was attacked by drones in the Black Sea today as it sailed roughly 80 miles off Turkey’s northern coast, according to Bloomberg. It was the fourth Russia-connected tanker attacked in less than a week as the strikes between Russia and Ukraine intensify amid ongoing peace talks. Russia continues to strike energy related targets in Ukraine, while Ukraine strikes at energy-related infrastructure in Russia. The tanker attacks appear to be related to Ukraine’s efforts to strike at the shadow fleet exporting oil in violation of the sanctions on Russia, although in today’s case, the target was reportedly carrying soybean oil. Nobody has officially taken credit for the strikes on the tankers, although Ukraine has taken credit for many of the strikes within Russia. Those attacks focused largely on oil exporting and refining infrastructure, including major damage to an oil port along the Black Sea that handles oil from Kazakhstan. Those strikes are starting to have an impact on Russian exports, along with the intensified U.S. sanctions. However, crude oil prices also reflect the possibility that many of those sanctions could be lifted if a peace agreement is reached amid the current negotiations. An U.S. envoy arrived in Moscow today to continue with those peace talks. Crude oil traders are also monitoring the situation in Venezuela after President Trump declared a no-fly zone over the country over the weekend, raising speculation that the United States might instigate strikes on the country to remove its current president.

The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China surveyed its 131 member companies recently regarding doing business in China. It found that more than half of these EU firms stated that Chinese export controls caused “moderate” to “significant” supply chain disruptions. A third of the respondents indicated that they were seeking to diversify their supply chains by working with suppliers outside of China. The survey provides further evidence that Western companies will continue to reduce investment flows to China – investment flows that have been a major contributor to China’s growth over the past couple of decades. This creates increasing challenges for China’s economy, leading it to double-down on its commitment to its Belt and Road initiative that tempts countries with low interest loans to develop key infrastructure, indebting those countries to China.

Two primary factors are expected to shape the U.S. grain and oilseed sector in the weeks ahead. One will be the extent to which China fulfills its commitments made in the trade deal that it reached with the United States. USDA Secretary Rollins stated last week that we should see the details of that agreement by the end of this week, which should give us a greater sense on what we can expect for commodities beyond just soybeans. The other major factor will be when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency releases the final regulations for the U.S. biofuel program through 2027. The above two factors could prove very bullish for commodity demand or disappoint.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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