Perspective: Morning Commentary February 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 11 Feb 2026, 14:40

February 11 – A solid jobs report provided a surprise for Wall Street this morning, leading stocks and Treasury yields to rise after the first real good news for the sector in quite some time. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index trades near rallied to trade near 97.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries surged to trade near 4.18%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.51%. Crude oil prices are nearly 3% higher this morning, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mixed to modestly lower overnight.

The economy created 130K jobs in January, nearly doubling the average trade guess of 70K, and well above the 48K jobs created in December. Federal government jobs dropped by another 34K in January. This brings the reduction in Federal civilian jobs to 327K since October 2024, or a 10.9% reduction. But the other side of that equation is that private sector jobs rose by 172K in January, which caught nearly everyone on Wall Street by surprise. The job participation rate ticked higher to 62.5%, but the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.3%. Healthcare was the leader in January, adding 82K jobs, while social assistance added 42K and construction added 33K jobs. Financial activities employment lost 22K jobs in December. The average workweek ticked higher to 34.3 hours, which is another positive sign for the economy, while the average wage rose 0.4% on the month and 3.7% on the year, both up 0.1 point from the previous month. Wall Street was braced for another soft jobs report, and this one definitely caught investors by surprise. They’ll now be looking to Friday’s inflation data for direction.

Once a year the Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmarks its establishment survey numbers against the quarterly census of employment and wages report. The revision is for the number as of March 2025. It’s been well known for some time that this benchmark would result in a significant downward revision. The number is large, but near what I and many others anticipated. Today’s report shows that downward revision for the March 2025 total number to be 898K for the seasonally adjusted and 862K for the non-seasonally adjusted number. You’ll likely see a lot of headlines about the adjustment, but Wall Street priced this in months ago, and it is focused on where the economy is going from this point forward.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Protect Taiwan Act on Monday, which now moves to the Senate for consideration. The legislation was introduced nearly a year ago, but it finally made its way through committee and to the House floor, where it passed with strong support. It is currently unknown when or if the Senate will take up the bill. The House’s passage of the bill will no doubt raise the ire of Chinese President Xi Jinping. If approved by the Senate and signed by the President, the bill would seek to lock China out of many of the global financial services if it took steps to take control of Taiwan. This is a delicate time for China, who’s military currently has a number of leadership positions empty due to Xi’s purging. Xi also doesn’t want to create a confrontation with the United States at a time when he needs President Trump’s help in calming the international waters to focus on his problems at home. Yet, the Taiwan issues is culturally a non-negotiable for China, keeping it as a potential flashpoint between China and the West that could undo trade relationships. I suspect that the Senate will sit on the bill for a time, and the President Trump may even use it as leverage in negotiations with Xi ahead of their scheduled summit in Beijing in early April. The issue is a reminder that China and the United States remain on a collision course long-term, but that Xi and Trump desperately need each other in 2025, as I’ve previously outlined. As such, the short game for both should not be confused with the long game that is surely still at play for both.

China’s consumer price index rose just 0.2% year-on-year in January, down from 0.8% in December and below expectations of 0.4% growth. But China’s producer price index reflected deflationary pressures for the 40^th consecutive month, dropping 1.4% year-on-year in January. That’s better than the 1.9% contraction seen in December, but it’s still negative nonetheless, reflecting the continual contraction in China’s manufacturing sector as the West continues to diversify away from China.

USDA’s WASDE crop report on Tuesday was a quiet one. Very few changes were made to USDA’s domestic and global balance sheets, and the ones that were made were largely anticipated. The two primary drivers for grain and oilseed fundamentals going forward are expected to be a) will China commit to more U.S. Ag & energy imports to get more favorable treatment from President Trump during this time of internal turmoil within China’s politics, and b) what will the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s final biofuel regulations be when released in the weeks ahead. These two issues could reshape supply and demand fundamentals going forward, especially for soybeans, but also for the other commodities as well.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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