Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 14

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 14 Apr 2023, 13:37

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 14 – Solid earnings reports set the early tone today, but things quickly turned lower again on worse-than-expected retail sales numbers that raised recession worries, with the data triggering selling in both the equities and the commodities. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning, or just above Thursday’s 10-week low, suggesting little panic on Wall Street. The dollar index rallied on the data release, pushing to 101.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.49%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.08%. Crude oil prices are near unchanged after running into resistance near the 200-day moving average the past two days. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly lower overnight.

Retail sales fell more than expected in March, raising fears of a more significant recession in the months ahead. Retail sales fell 1.0% month-on-month, which was much larger than the 0.4% decline expected by analysts, although the February number was revised from -0.4% to -0.2%. Retail sales minus vehicles fell 0.8% month-on-month in March, which was twice the -0.4% expected by analysts, after being flat in February. Retail sales minus vehicles and gas were down 0.3% month-on-month, after also being flat in February. Putting today’s numbers into perspective, a decline in gas prices combined with slower vehicle sales to drag the headline number much lower than expected. However, overall retail sales still slumped modestly, even without the big drag of gas and vehicles.

Today’s data provides further evidence that the consumer is pulling back spending, which is what one would expect from the low consumer sentiment numbers. The Fed’s worry is that there’s still too much stimulus left in the system that would trigger a resurgence in consumer spending – and therefore inflation – if it pivots too quickly resulting in a bullish market response. It wants to be careful not to pivot before its been able to extract enough stimulus from the system. The problem is that nobody knows how much “enough” is. The Fed also knows that resurging energy prices could further complicate the inflation problem if it pivots too quickly. That doesn’t mean that it might not pause its rate hikes, but a rate reduction is not likely any time soon based on what the Fed has communicated. We’ll see updated consumer sentiment data later this morning to provide further insight into what the consumer is currently thinking, which will also be considered by the Federal Reserve when it meets next month.

Brazil’s President Lula met with China’s President Xi today in Beijing, after Lula stopped in Shanghai earlier in the week to see the BRICS New Development Bank in Shanghai. The bank was set up to facilitate loans, investments, and trade settlements among BRIC member countries, which currently includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The NDB allows these member countries to clear transactions without needing to use U.S. dollars through the SWIFT banking system that was used to sanction Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Today’s edition of China Direct, published by our Shanghai office, indicates that Algeria, Iran, and Argentina have applied to join BRIC, while Saudi Arabia is on the list as well. Xi Jinping has had a parade of world leaders in Beijing over the past month as he seeks to strengthen coalitions with nations that would isolate the United States.

Part of China’s strategy also includes reducing its dependency on imported soybeans. China has a three-year plan to further reduce soymeal inclusion in feed rations to reduce their need to import soybeans. Its new goal is to see inclusion in rations drop to 13.0% by 2025, which is below its previous goal of 13.5%. Inclusion at the end of last year was down to 14.5%, down from 17.8% in 2018. The current goal is to pull another 0.5% off the number each year until the goal is obtained. That is expected to reduce soymeal demand by 2.5 million metric tons annually, while reducing the demand for soybeans by 3 mmt per year. This is expected to combine with the rapid expansion of Brazilian production to eventually eliminate China’s need to import significant quantities of soybeans from the United States. Meanwhile, China is aggressively buying cheap soybeans from Brazil this year to rebuild its reserves. Basis has collapsed in Brazil due to active farmer selling of this year’s massive crop, providing an ideal opportunity for Brazil to stock up. In fact, basis in Brazil is so cheap that we’ve started importing soybeans into the U.S. Southeast.

China bought another 15 million bushels of U.S. corn overnight, according to USDA, including 9.7 million bushels of old-crop corn for shipment this summer. China continues to be an aggressive buyer of corn, which I believe is also about rebuilding its reserves ahead of any potential future conflict with the United States with Ukraine becoming a less-reliable supplier due to the war. The combination of these factors keeps U.S. old-crop stocks of corn and soybeans snug, while new-crop prospects continue to improve. Historically, the trade tends to shift to focusing on the new-crop fundamentals, while allowing the basis and spreads to do the work of rationing the old-crop supplies ahead of harvest. The rapid development of El Nino increases the trade’s confidence that we will work ourselves out of tight corn and soybean stocks in the year ahead. That may not be true for wheat, although falling corn prices can create headwinds for wheat.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.