Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 2

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 02 Apr 2026, 12:58

Today's Perspective Video: War Fears or Crop Facts

April 2 – Stock futures tumbled overnight, following President Trump’s address to the nation last night, while commodity prices took off again, led by energy prices. Speculative ownership of food and energy-based commodities became the theme once again overnight. The VIX (Washington’s fear index) is trading near 28 this morning, reflecting elevated fear levels, while the dollar index is trading near 100.1, resuming its safe-haven status, and suggesting foreign interest in parking investments here in the States. The markets will be closed for the Good Friday Easter holiday tomorrow, giving three days for headlines to create risk while the markets are closed, adding to today’s volatility. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.35% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.83%. WTI crude oil prices surged higher to trade near $112 this morning, surpassing Brent crude that is trading near $109 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector followed crude oil higher, with investors worried about the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed to both energy and fertilizer movement.

I didn’t hear anything different in President Trump’s speech to the nation last night than what he and his Administration had been saying this week, but the markets certainly heard something different. President Trump essentially gave Iran an ultimatum – sign our peace treaty or we will unleash the entire power of the U.S. military on you to eliminate you, or as he said, the U.S. military will send Iran “back to the Stone Ages.” It’s just another way of saying what he and others on his team have been saying in recent days. The president doesn’t want this to linger into a long-term war as so many other wars have over the decades. That would favor Iran, allowing Iran time to turn the world against Israel and the United States, while also allowing time for the U.S. electorate to turn on President Trump. We’ve heard considerable rhetoric in recent days about how pivotal the days ahead will be, resulting in either a peace agreement or total victory. Investors heard that to mean, the war is almost over, selectively not hearing that the choice belongs to Iran, and this regime has never demonstrated anything but a fight to the death mentality. I assumed then that we would see the full impact of the U.S. military then unleashed on Iran to eliminate the current regime, whose air force and navy have already been destroyed. Trump is assuming that would not take more than two to three weeks to complete those operations, which is within the original stated timeframe.

President Trump also challenged the rest of the world to “take back the Strait of Hormuz,” as he and his team have been recently saying, and as I addressed yesterday. International cooperation would increase the speed at which the Strait could be reopened. The president told the world that the United States doesn’t need that oil, but rather that we would assist other nations in taking back the Strait. He encouraged other nations to buy U.S. oil in the meantime, which is part of the reason why WTI crude oil surged as high as it did overnight, overtaking Brent crude oil in the process. Keep in mind that the president is battling a public relations battle, while also positioning for negotiations in his remarks, just as Iran is doing. Winning any war is about public positioning as much as it is military might. The United States does produce more energy than we consume, but as I stated yesterday, we still have to import the types of oil that our refineries were designed to process, while we export crude oil that those refineries cannot process. It’s a world market, and the barrels that we need can also be easily pulled toward other countries when the arbitrage incentivizes. The same is true for fertilizer. We do not live on an independent island. So there’s a lot of positioning rhetoric in President Trump’s comments. But the bottom line is that the President fully intends to wrap up this war within the next two to three weeks, when the focus can be on reopening the Strait. Restoring production though will take much longer, as we’ve previously discussed.

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to a low 202K in the week ending March 28, down from 211K the previous week, and below analyst expectations of 213K claims. The four-week moving average slipped to 207.75K claims, down from 210.75K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending March 21 rose to 1.841 million, up 25K from the previous week. The four-week moving average for continuing claims dropped by 7,500 to 1.839 million, so continuing claims largely remain within their recent range. Today’s Challenger job cut report indicated that firms gave notice in March of possible layoffs of 60,620, up from 48,307 the previous month.

Headlines continue to drive the grain and oilseed markets, with money flow driven by investor perceptions about how long the Strait of Hormuz might be closed to energy and fertilizer movement. We’re starting today with positive money flow into both the energy and food-based commodities, although that could change with the next headline. We have three days of headlines ahead that the markets will trade on Monday. Volatility will likely be with us until certainty returns, and that likely means an end to the Iran war with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within sight. Then we can assess what is needed for rebuilding infrastructure.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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