Perspective: Morning Commentary for February 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 11 Feb 2022, 14:27

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

February 11 – Stocks came under pressure from follow-through selling overnight, but then began to erase losses when selling momentum evaporated in the very early morning hours, before pushing positive as desks opened up in the United States this morning. The VIX posted a one-week high above 25 overnight, but then began to fall as stock futures recovered, trading currently just below 24. The dollar index is trading near 95.8 this morning, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.0%, after posting a two-year high above 2.05% yesterday. Crude oil prices are 1% higher this morning as money flows into the broader commodity sector, which also helped support a recovery bounce in the Ags following yesterday’s big reversal lower.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned today that a Russian invasion into Ukraine may be imminent. He stated, “We’re in a window when an invasion could begin at any time, and to be clear, that includes during the Olympics. Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border.” The Olympic Games end on February 20^th, and Russia’s Military Day is February 23^rd. Russia launched joint military exercises in Belarus on Ukraine’s northern border this week, along with naval drills in the Black Sea. Russia denies that it plans to invade Ukraine, but it warns that it could take unspecified “military-technical” action unless the West agrees to a series of demands. Those demands include a commitment to never allow Ukraine into NATO, and a promise to remove western troops from Eastern Europe. Four-way talks yesterday between Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France saw no progress. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Thursday that the days ahead would be the most dangerous moment in Europe’s biggest security crisis for decades.

The conflict adds some pre-weekend drama for the commodity markets heading into the weekend. Fund managers must ask themselves whether they’d prefer to go into the weekend long or short the commodities. Some of the commodities that could be most dramatically impacted by a military conflict in the region include wheat, corn, sunflower oil, fertilizer, crude oil, and more. This comes after much of the commodity sector posted a bearish reversal on Thursday, as momentum-trading computers flipped from buyers to sellers midday. There were a few fundamental and technical factors, but the whiplash of momentum is typical of a market trading at high levels in today’s world of computer trading.

Inflation remains a key conversation on Wall Street driving the money flow behind those computers. Yesterday’s consumer price index data showing the hottest inflation in four decades, creating a stir on Wall Street. Money flowed into the commodities as a hedge against inflation, before flowing out on fears that the high numbers may lead the Fed to over-react, stalling this nation’s economic growth. Yields on 10-year Treasuries pushed above 2% for the first time in more than two years on Thursday, but some of the greatest volatility was seen in Fed fund futures, where the market priced in expectations reflecting almost certainty that we will see a 50-basis point increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate at its March meeting, although that certainty calmed to roughly 65% odds this morning. The market also priced in expectations on Thursday that the Fed will raise rates by 175 to 200 basis points by its December meeting on Thursday, although here again, those odds have moderated a bit this morning. The bottom line is that history tells us that inflation tends to be supportive of positive money flow into the broader commodity sector, until those expectations create fear, at which time the money flow pulls back again until those fears ease. That’s a snapshot of what we saw play out over the past 24 hours. Fundamentals of individual assets still matter, but supply and demand are balanced within the context of the above money flow factors.

CONAB’s slashing of Brazil’s soybean production estimate by 15 million metric tons to 125.5 mmt yesterday gave credibility to other private estimates – including StoneX Brazil – that were already in that range. Those low numbers are a game changer for the soybean balance sheet if they are verified by the combines in the weeks and months ahead. The market has a lot more work to do to ration demand, stimulate acreage expansion in the States and to balance supplies between Brazil and the United States if those numbers prove accurate, and that doesn’t include potential losses yet in Argentina, where the forecast continues to threaten more heat and drought. Corn becomes more of a focus in March and April in both Argentina and in Brazil, with the focus then shifting north to the U.S. growing season beyond that. Meanwhile, the Ag and Energy markets will also continue to keep their eyes on the conflict in the Black Sea Region, especially over the next 10 days to two weeks.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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