Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 20 Jul 2022, 12:30

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Matt Zeller

Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

July 20 – U.S. stock markets surged yesterday with the Dow Jones up over 750 points, and futures are indicating fairly steady action this morning as traders peruse corporate earnings reports. Stocks on the NYSE hit a “90% up day” with 90% of listings higher on the session, and all three main indices showing positive signs on the charts. Overall sentiment looks fairly positive at this point that the economy can continue to advance, or at least not recede, despite the expected interest rate increase coming down the pipe from the Fed next week.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 6.3% on the week ending July 15, down from a -1.7% result in the week prior and the third straight weekly decline. Home purchases were down 7.3% after a 3.6% decline the previous week, and refinancings fell 4.3% after a 2.2% rise on the week to 7/8. Average mortgage rates of 5.82% rose from last week but remain below the mid-June peak. Existing home sales figures for June are on the way later this morning, seen down from 5.41 to 5.35 million last month. Housing market data is being carefully monitored after some recent concerning signs, and higher interest rates slowing down the post-COVID and post-stimulus boom.

The European Union is trying to reduce its dependence on Russian gas supplies, announcing a plan today to reduce gas use by 15% until next spring – though its up to member states to show how they will achieve that goal. The major Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline has been shut down over the past 10 days, for routine maintenance, but European officials are concerned that Russia will refuse to re-start deliveries.

Wheat lagged up into the early morning hours but most contracts have picked up a quick 30 cents since; that’s despite the GASC’s snub of U.S. wheat in yesterday’s tender (after we were the only country that submitted offers), and despite “talks” over the Ukraine export corridor that are supposed to be happening this week. Those meetings are apparently scheduled for tomorrow or Friday in Istanbul, but the trade is clearly looking for more concrete evidence of an agreement as well as actual shipments to start moving out of the country. The latter development could be quite some time off yet, as lanes need to be cleared of mines and approved before the first cargo leaves. War continues in the meantime, with Russian shelling picking up in southern Ukraine, and some farmers rushing to harvest crops before fields are burned. We’re moving closer to a supply crunch in the country with exports still slow, storage remaining tight, and new-crop supplies ready to hit the market with nowhere to go.

Commodity Weather Group’s U.S. forecasts are shown below, with more varied conditions throughout; temps remain hot this week but cool a bit for the 6-10 day, though the trend is largely seen staying on the warm side of normal past that. This weekend should bring some rains to the heart of the belt, moving into the ECB for the 6-10 day. We’re clearly not going to see a widespread “million-dollar rain”, but last year proved that the corn crop needs less precipitation than it used to, to still produce a record nationwide yield…

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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