StoneX logo
Contact us

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 29

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Add us as preferred source on Google

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Senior Commodities Economist

July 29 – It’s Fed day, but the market is focused primarily on geopolitical escalations and concerns regarding the tech sector’s heavy AI spending, with stock futures pointing to a mixed open. The Nasdaq is looking to start the day in the green after seeing an ugly selloff that has pushed the index to near three-month lows this week. The VIX is in the green to start the day but remains relatively muted as it hovers near 18.7 at the time of writing. The dollar has traded both sides of unchanged overnight but is currently up very slightly on the day, reflecting cautious expectations of holding steady today but fearing a possible hike. Personally, I don’t expect Warsh’s first move at the helm to be an unexpected hike this early, especially following largely better-than-expected June inflation data, but unpredictability is likely the underlying concern. Treasuries are off from their recent peak but remain elevated, with 10-year yields trading above 4.62% and 2-year yields trading above 4.30% at the time of writing. Crude oil is up sharply, reversing course from the early week losses, with nearby WTI up 6.5% on the day to trade near $84.30 and nearby Brent up 5.6% to trade near $86.70 amid escalations in the Middle East that we’ll dive into below. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the biggest losses being seen in soybeans.

The rout in chip stocks has not been exclusive to the U.S., with South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index seeing an extremely violent selloff this week, down almost 11% yesterday and 6% today to now sit 40% below the peak reached in mid-June (though still up notably from the start of 2026). SK Hynix posted record earnings on Wednesday but still missed extremely lofty expectations. American tech giants will now be in focus the rest of the week, with Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm all due to report after today’s close and Amazon/Apple both due to report after tomorrow’s close. Traders will be scrutinizing these companies’ capex closely while also looking for signs of actual return on their massive investments in AI. In the background of all this is cheaper competition from China, with ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the country’s largest DRAM memory-chip maker, up over 500% from their initial IPO price to start the week. Rapid advances by heavily funded Chinese chipmakers and AI-model developers with expectations of delivering memory and computing capacity at much lower prices is what has investors nervous regarding the massive U.S. (and South Korean) investments. I wouldn’t lose sight of this competition as it relates to broader U.S./China relations down the road either, which may be in part behind the sharp drop in soybeans this week.

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia carried out joint strikes on Iran-backed militias across Iraq in response to repeated drone incursions targeting Saudi oil facilities earlier this week, many of which originated from Iraq. While many of these drones originating from Iraq were intercepted, there have been unconfirmed reports of damage to the Saudi’s Abqaiq facility. Regardless of whether the facility sustained notable damage, the fact that it was targeted is very telling of the intent for supporting the Iranian directive of cutting off the flow of oil from the region to sustain leverage. Abqaiq is effectively the eastern gateway into Saudi Arabia’s east-to-west pipeline system that feeds the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, which has gained immense importance amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While it’s not the only possible source feeding this system, it is very important for sustaining current volumes of export-quality crude outside of the Strait. This is a notable escalation, as it represents the first public direct involvement of the Saudi military in an offensive capacity outside of its own borders in this conflict, and a show of good faith by the U.S. in defending its ally from these attacks.

The same export system is also being targeted by the Houthis, the Iran-backed proxies in Yemen, whose attacks have caused more publicly confirmed damage to Saudi oil facilities since the weekend “pause” in direct U.S./Iran fighting. The 400k barrel per day Jazan refinery was taken offline by Houthi strikes over the weekend, with public officials stating expectations for the facility to resume operations in mid-August. They have also targeted the critical port of Yanbu itself in recent days, though unsuccessfully, while continuing to target ships in the Red Sea as they state their aims of following Iran’s attempt of establishing an effective toll booth on their own strait. The question now is how much direct Saudi involvement we see in Yemen. After several years of relative restraint, focusing primarily on indirect support, the Saudi military has carried out direct strikes on Houthi targets within Yemen this month. Iran’s goal appears to be a widening of the conflict across the region via their proxy network, and the Houthis are likely the most viable for doing so at this point after the degradation of Hezbollah following recent years of fighting with Israel.

President Trump this morning said the U.S. would be “hitting Iran hard,” potentially signaling an end to the few days of attempted de-escalation. As outlined above, Iran had mostly been focusing on attacking via their proxies following the weekend decision by the U.S. to pause their bombing campaign but have now broken from that pattern by sending ballistic missiles at U.S. military installations in Jordan, all of which were reportedly intercepted. Iran continues to escalate, today rejecting Oman’s proposal for joint management of the Strait as they continue to push for full control. Crude oil prices have snapped their losing streak in response, with traders back to watching for headlines of the U.S. response.

  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 29

July 29 – It’s Fed day, but the market is focused primarily on geopolitical escalations and concerns regarding the tech sector’s heavy AI spending, with stock futures pointing to a mixed open. The Nasdaq is looking to start the day in the green after seeing an ugly selloff that has pushed the index to near three-month lows this week. The VIX is in the green to start the day but remains relatively muted as it hovers near 18.7 at the time of writing. The dollar has traded both sides of unchanged overnight but is currently up very slightly on the day, reflecting cautious expectations of holding steady today but fearing a possible hike. Personally, I don’t expect Warsh’s first move at the helm to be a hike, especially following largely better-than-expected June inflation data, but unpredictability is likely the underlying concern. Treasuries are off from their recent peak but remain elevated, with 10-year yields trading above 4.62% and 2-year yields trading above 4.30% at the time of writing. Crude oil is up sharply, reversing course from the early week losses, with nearby WTI up 6.5% on the day to trade near $84.30 and nearby Brent up 5.6% to trade near $86.70 amid escalations in the Middle East that we’ll dive into below. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the biggest losses being seen in soybeans.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Why Fund Yield Models Now Sit Far Above the USDA’s Corn Yield Estimate

Grain funds are trading privately built corn yield models that run well above the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s own estimate, and that gap is driving money into and out of the market. Understanding why those models diverge explains more about the corn and soybean price swings than the weekend headlines the algorithms chased.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 28

July 28 – Stock futures were mixed to firmer overnight, as relative calm continues in the Middle East and as the Federal Open Market Committee begins two days of monetary policy discussion. The VIX is trading near 19, while the dollar index trades near 101.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.63%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.30%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel after actually probing below $80 earlier in the session, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector tried to bounce in the overnight session following yesterday’s active selloff, but it quickly succumbed to additional selling pressure as crude oil added to its losses, with the exception of corn that held modest gains based on tumbling crop ratings.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.