StoneX logo
Contact us

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Today's Perspective Video: WASDE Aftermath & Iran Peace: What Markets Are Watching

June 15 – A peace deal has been reached with Iran. Stock futures gapped higher as a result, while commodity prices came under pressure. And oh yes, it’s also Fed week on Wall Street. The VIX traded near 16, while the dollar index traded below 99.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.04%. WTI crude oil prices traded to a three-month low, probing below $80 per barrel at one point early this morning, while Brent dropped below $83 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets followed the energy markets lower as well on the news.

A signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland for an agreement reached between Iran and the United States over the weekend. The deal is said to provide the pathway to peace, but some of the most contentious issues have not yet been fully dealt with in the agreement. The markets primarily care about the Strait of Hormuz being reopened, and that is in the agreement, while the question of Iran’s ability to have nuclear weapons has not yet been settled. Regardless, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that the agreement calls for “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Yet, Hezbollah has not yet commented on the agreement, nor has Israel for that matter, leaving some questions regarding their plans to comply with it. Iran says that all military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will come to a permanent end tonight, which would be historic if it happens.

From a market standpoint, the key is commodity flow again through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated that the Strait will reopen on Friday, leading oil prices to fall to three-month lows as a result. Yet, there is a big difference between opening the Strait, and restoring oil and fertilizer flows to prewar levels. Shippers remain cautious. Clearing mines in the water could take weeks to accomplish. Insurers will want to make sure that hostilities really have ended before providing affordable coverage. Shipping companies will want to have that same confidence before risking sending ships back into the Persian Gulf for reloading, after first getting ships still trapped in the Gulf out with their loads. Infrastructure damage will also need to be repaired, and wells restarted. For natural gas and fertilizer in particular, there are reports that the infrastructure damage could take as long as three to five years to repair. The questions over Iran’s nuclear program remain unsettled, with the agreement reportedly setting the next 60 days as the target for reaching an agreement on those contentious issues. Iran and the United States appear no closer on that issue than they were when the war started, so that will remain a flashpoint risk that could result in the war restarting again. President Trump would not likely want to restart the war ahead of the midterm elections, but that possibility exists, along with the ongoing risks of repeat flare ups between Israel and some of the Iran-backed groups with which it spars. I say this to say that those with commodity price risk exposure will need to continue to maintain a risk plan in place for managing that risk that price volatility could return at any point.   

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet for the first time under the leadership of newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh on Tuesday and Wednesday. No changes in the Fed’s interest rate are expected, but the primary focus will be on Warsh’s leadership. First, will he be able to re-earn the respect of the members of the FOMC, with many of them being skeptical of him simply because he is an appointee of President Trump? Second, what attempts at reforms can we expect, and how soon can we expect them? Based on what we know about Warsh, we expect him to try to move the Fed more into the background, rather than the Fed being the primary focus of the markets. We’ll likely see an end to many of the publicized economic forecasts of the Fed, including the famous dot plot graphic, that have at times been an embarrassment to the central bank. He would rather see the Fed working in the background to impact the economy without the hyper-focus of the markets that tends to distort the Fed’s ability to manage the economy. Warsh also believes that the Fed’s balance sheet needs to be drastically cut over time, although that may be a challenge in the near term. However, doing so, when combined with increased productivity from AI adoption, should allow interest rates to be cut longer term. And that appears to be where he stands.

The timing of the peace agreement announcement couldn’t have been worse for the grain and oilseed markets that were trying to consolidate near areas of chart support last week. December corn’s break below areas of significant chart support near the $4.40 level was most noticeable if confirmed in this week’s trade. This can bring additional momentum related selling going forward. Weather appears generally favorable for the Midwest crops at this time with no real story to change the direction of that momentum. End users now have incentive to allow prices to come to them once again. That could change at any point with a headline out of the Middle East, but commodity producers have to be concerned about downside risks in the absence of such headlines.    

  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 15

June 15 – A peace deal has been reached with Iran. Stock futures gapped higher as a result, while commodity prices came under pressure. And oh yes, it’s also Fed week on Wall Street. The VIX traded near 16, while the dollar index traded below 99.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.04%. WTI crude oil prices traded to a three-month low, probing below $80 per barrel at one point early this morning, while Brent dropped below $83 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets followed the energy markets lower as well on the news.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Why El Niño Threat Raises Questions About Global Readiness

As the probability of El Niño increases, governments, businesses and agricultural producers are being forced to reassess their preparedness for weather-related disruptions. The discussion highlights why climate forecasts have value not because they predict certainty, but because they provide time to prepare for a wider range of possible outcomes.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

India's Ethanol Boom Could Open New Markets for U.S. Corn

India's corn production surpassed 55 million tons for the first time on record, but a fast-expanding domestic ethanol sector is absorbing that surplus before it reaches export markets. For the Asian importers that once drew on Indian supply, and for U.S. corn exporters already running at record volumes, the direction of India's biofuel mandate matters more than its output number.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.