Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 08 Jun 2022, 13:33

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

June 8 – Stocks again came under pressure overnight, after reversing to post notable gains yesterday in a broad sideways trading range, as Tuesday’s tech rally loses momentum amid economic concerns. Wall Street is braced for updated inflation data scheduled to be released on Friday, followed by the next Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. The VIX continues to consolidate near 25 this morning as traders wait for the above events. The dollar index is trading near 102.4 this morning, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are back above 3%, trading near 3.01%. Crude oil prices are back above $120 per barrel this morning, after hitting their highest level since the spike that occurred immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ags were mostly higher overnight, led by soybeans and corn once again, but garnering some modest strength for wheat as well.

Friday’s inflation data will be pivotal for providing some indication as to whether inflation pressures have peaked, or merely paused, or possibly in a phase of sustaining current levels for an extended period of time. That then is expected to have an impact on how policymakers respond when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next week to discuss changes to its monetary policy. Policymakers have telegraphed their current intentions for reducing the balance sheet and raising interest rates, but their comments have also suggested that those plans are subject to change if necessary. It’s that last part that Wall Street traders now fear.

Turkey continues to tout a near-agreement on opening humanitarian corridors for Ukrainian grain to move out through the Black Sea, but Ukraine is not a part of the talks. Turkey cozied up more to Russia on Tuesday when Russia’s foreign minister traveled there to discuss the possibility. Russia’s interest is to see sanctions against it removed, while Ukrainian ports are also demined. However, the West shows zero interest at this time in removing sanctions against Russia, and Ukraine says no agreement will be reached if its interests are not protected. Those interests include keeping Russian warships away from Ukraine ports. Ukraine doubts whether Turkey’s military is adequate to protect Ukraine ports, and so such protection would likely have to be by NATO, or some foreign group of nations. Neither of those look likely currently. Thus far, this appears to fall under the same false hopes that Turkey spread several months ago when it led the world to believe that it was on the cusp of negotiating a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Saturday’s missile attack on the grain terminal in Mykolaiv further escalated fears that it plans to use any corridor created by the clearing of mines to attack Odessa and southern Ukraine. The control of all of Ukraine’s ports has long been a stated objective of Russia’s military.

Ukraine continues to develop export routes over its western border, seeking to move grain to barge channels in eastern Europe that can then move grain to seaports. This strategy allowed it to push grain exports to 1.7 million metric tons in May – its largest to date since the war started. That’s a quarter of the capacity seen using the ports prior to the war, but it is progress. The focus in May was to move corn out through these western channels, and that continues to be the case for June, with smaller amounts of wheat and other products. Ukraine believes that its export capacity over its western border infrastructure will be near 2 mmt, which is a little less an a third of its previous port capacity. Ukraine now states that 23.5 mmt of grain remain within its borders that it cannot export due to the ports being closed. That total is soon expected to rise as wheat harvest begins. Overall storage capacity in areas under Ukrainian control are estimated to be near 55 mmt, with 30 mmt of that capacity currently in use. Authorities are currently considering mobile storage options that could add another 10 – 15 mmt of capacity. Another challenge for the harvest is a shortage of fuel for harvesting and transporting the grain.

Forecast maps continue to show a shift in the weather pattern next week impacting the primary Ag belt. A high-pressure ridge is expected to develop east of the Rocky Mountains late next week, with a broad low-pressure forming over the Pacific Northwest. The above pattern brings a more active rain pattern to the Pacific Northwest, while allowing heat and dryness to build in our nation’s midsection. The Euro model has been warning of a risk of this pattern building into July, but it’s not yet clear whether the high-pressure ridge will have the strength or staying power to do so. That will be a big part of determining the extent of production risks that could develop as the corn crop moves into its pollination phase next month. The current thinking is that the ridge will focus on central and northern areas of the Plains in late June and early July, pushing temperatures above normal and reducing rainfall for that region, stretching east to the Mississippi River.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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