Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 20 Mar 2026, 13:22

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Lead Market Intelligence Project Manager

March 20 – Stock futures are again pointing to a lower open this morning as they continue to flirt with their November lows. It will be very interesting to watch trade today to see if stocks find support at these November lows, or if they slip below them. The VIX is slightly in the green this morning, hovering around 24.7 after touching a fresh one-week high above 27.5 yesterday. The dollar is attempting a rebound to end the week after a sharp drop yesterday, up 0.35% at the time of writing to sit right around the 99.5 mark. Treasuries are adding to yesterday’s strength and posting fresh highs, with 10-year yields hovering near their high since August at 4.32% this morning and 2-year yields near their high since late July at 3.885%. Crude oil futures have traded both sides of unchanged overnight in expectedly volatile trade, but nearby WTI is slightly in the green (near $95.40/barrel) and Brent slightly in the red (near $108.10/barrel) at the time of writing. The ags are widely lower to start the session, with the wheat complex leading the way down.

President Trump said yesterday he had told Israel not to repeat its attacks on Iranian gas infrastructure after their strike on a range of sites in the South Pars field, the world’s largest, that prompted Iran to retaliate against major facilities in neighboring countries, with the most notable being Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, which processes nearly 20% of the world’s LNG. In a press conference yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel acted alone in this attack and that Trump had indeed asked them to hold off on additional targeting of energy infrastructure in the future. These statements appear to have appeased traders to some extent for now, as energy prices cooled a bit from yesterday’s spike, but the sector remains on edge. Unfortunately, not just the natural gas sector, but all its downstream dependents, however, the damage at Ras Laffan is done potentially taking as long as three to five years to fully repair. As for the damage in Iran, initial reports suggest two refineries with a combined capacity of 100 million cubic meters per day have been taken offline, but we’re unlikely to know the full extent for some time amid the ongoing fog of war. The country already faced significant infrastructure problems prior to this war, and that’s only likely to get worse. This week’s escalation serves as a reminder of just how high the stakes are in this region and why markets have priced in such risk premium in response.

Iran doesn’t appear to have gotten the memo, however, carrying out a fresh attack on a neighbor’s energy infrastructure today, this time the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery in Kuwait. State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) said the attack caused a fire at several units of the refinery and that a number were shut down as a precaution, but no injuries were reported. While Iran has said publicly that their attacks on regional energy infrastructure were only in response to the attack on their own, the reality is that this has been their strategy since day one. Traders know that, and that’s likely to keep markets on edge for as long as this conflict drags on.

Japan and a handful of European nations (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom) issued a joint statement yesterday condemning Iranian attacks on unarmed commercial vessels, regional energy infrastructure, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz while also expressing their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.” All of these nations, and Europe/east Asia more broadly, are among the most highly exposed economically to this conflict given their reliance on energy imports, much of which comes from behind the Strait. It was clear this language was deliberately focused on freedom of navigation and broader global economic impacts rather than suggesting any willingness for direct military intervention.

The U.S. further eased sanctions on Russian ally Belarus yesterday in exchange for the release of an additional 250 political prisoners. Specifically, yesterday’s measures eased sanctions on two of the country’s major banks, their Finance Ministry, and their potash producers. If you’ve seen anyone stating this move will help “ease fertilizer prices,” don’t listen to them. This sanctions relief is specifically for the country’s potash sector—that is by far the world’s best supplied nutrient, with very little exposure to the Middle East conflict and prices already rather cheap, as shown below. The problem, and potentially now a longer-term one following this week’s damage to gas infrastructure, is in the nitrogen and phosphate markets. The dropping of U.S. sanctions won’t materially change anything about potash flows from landlocked Belarus either, as existing E.U. sanctions keep them cut off from their traditional top export route through Lithuania and Ukraine will obviously have no interest in reopening access to their ports given Belarus helping Russia invade them. Potash from Belarus will still flow primarily through Russia, whether via Russian ports or via rail connections to their main buyer, China. All this does is help them get paid more legitimately. As with its windfall in the energy sector, Russia has also been one of the main economic beneficiaries of the Middle East conflict in the fertilizer sector so far.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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