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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 10

Mike Castle
Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

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November 10 – October CPI inflation data came in slightly hotter than expected this morning, with headline CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month and core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, both of which were 0.1% above the average analyst estimate. Year-on-year figures were not published due to last October’s government shutdown, but we can interpolate using the CPI index itself. If we take the average of last September and November’s CPI index of 324.461, it would imply a headline CPI increase of 4.0% year-over-year, which would be an acceleration from the 3.7% seen in September and the hottest reading since May. Given the major build-up of inflationary pressures already seen at the producer level, it’s no surprise to see the pass-through to the consumer taking place, as we’ve been pointing to for months.   

Stock futures are pointing to a lower open in classic turnaround Tuesday fashion as they look to take back some of yesterday’s sharp gains. The VIX is up 5.7% from yesterday’s close, currently sitting just above 21, though well below the recent highs above 28 seen last week. The dollar is looking at a turnaround Tuesday as well, up 0.3% to trade near 102 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are sharply higher to start the session, with 2-year yields up near 15-basis points to trade near 4.70%, 10-year yields up 9-basis points to trade near 4.955%, and 30-year yields up 6-basis points to trade just below 5.32%. Crude oil prices are continuing lower amid de-escalatory rhetoric coming from the Trump administration, with nearby WTI down 2.2% on the day to trade below $84.50 while nearby Brent is down 3.4% to trade near $89.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly lower at the break.

Trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. have begun in Abu Dhabi today, marking the first direct negotiations among the parties since February. While the meeting has fueled optimism in some corners of the market that progress toward a ceasefire could eventually improve Black Sea trade flows and reduce geopolitical risk premiums, expectations for a near-term breakthrough remain low. Officials from both the Ukrainian and Russian delegations continue to signal significant differences over territorial issues, security guarantees and the broader European security framework. As a result, grain markets may remain vulnerable to headline-driven volatility, but any assumption that the talks will quickly lead to increased Black Sea exports or a lasting resolution to the conflict appears premature at this stage.

Russian officials are clearly trying to curry favor with the U.S. ahead of said talks, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov writing a piece on Tuesday for Russia’s prominent newspaper Kommersant touting the effectiveness of last month’s diesel diplomacy. He was quoted as saying: “an important contribution to energy security was the agreement between the Russian and U.S. leaders to suspend restrictions on the export of Russian diesel. We have already started implementing it, which immediately brought prices down.” There is still no confirmed unloading of Russian diesel in the U.S. that I can find, with the vessels originally loaded for the U.S. diverting to other markets as domestic buyers shun the barrels due to the associated legal risks. When this deal was originally announced on October 9, U.S. national average diesel prices per GasBuddy were at $6.258/gallon. Today, they stand at $6.164/gallon—i.e. $0.09/gallon lower. Total U.S. distillate stocks as of last week’s D.O.E. report are currently at their tightest level for this point in the year on record and their lowest for any point in the year since May 2003. The reason I point this out is because it’s a prime example of the divergence between headlines and reality on the ground, an important distinction to level-set reality ahead of these talks. Headlines will likely drive volatility as they have through all of 2026, but physical commodity markets ultimately need to see changes on the ground, which have proven much more elusive as this war nears the five-year mark.

U.S. corn and soybean harvest both moved a little slower than expected on yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report from USDA, with corn harvest advancing 7% week-on-week to reach 81% complete and soybeans advancing 4% week-on-week to reach 92% complete, both 1% below their respective average analyst estimates. Both are behind schedule, but corn is now relatively further behind given the focus on getting soybeans out seen over the last month, with the current pace of corn harvest the slowest since 2019 and soybeans the slowest since 2021. The biggest delay for the corn crop remains in top producer Iowa, with South Dakota now tying them—both 17% behind their reported previous five-year average paces. With a sharp break lower in prices and direct payments from the Harvest Fuel Relief program coming, farmers will likely not be in a hurry to sell. Couple this with the delayed harvest, and we may continue to see additional strength in the affected cash markets.

U.S. winter wheat conditions surged 5% higher week-on-week to now sit at 49% good/excellent, handily topping optimistic trade estimates for a more modest improvement to 47%. That big uptick now puts national winter wheat ratings at their highest for the comparable week in six years. Oklahoma led the way higher, jumping 11% week-on-week to now sit at 36% good/excellent as this fall’s abundant moisture helps get the crop off to a great start, though this week’s break from the rain and some sunshine will certainly be welcome. On that note, this week’s weather should also help the state, and broader Central/Southern Plains region, push through tail-end of planting season. Oklahoma remains the furthest behind schedule on winter wheat planting, advancing another 15% week-on-week to reach 77% complete, still trailing their previous five-year average pace by 9% but playing notable catch-up from recent weeks. At the national level, winter wheat planting advanced another 6% week-on-week to reach 89% complete, in line with the average analyst estimate and bringing planting progress closer to historical averages after seeing the slowest pace on record for much of the fall. While we don’t have comparable numbers from last year due to the government shutdown, this year’s pace is now only tied for the 3rd slowest pace since 2000. Winter wheat crop insurance prices being at four-year highs, corn/soybean prices tanking through the fall, and major improvements to soil moisture profiles are all driving incentive for heavier U.S. winter wheat planting.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 10

November 10 – October CPI inflation data came in slightly hotter than expected this morning, with headline CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month and core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, both of which were 0.1% above the average analyst estimate. Year-on-year figures were not published due to last October’s government shutdown, but we can interpolate using the CPI index itself. If we take the average of last September and November’s CPI index of 324.461, it would imply a headline CPI increase of 4.0% year-over-year, which would be an acceleration from the 3.7% seen in September and the hottest reading since May. Given the major build-up of inflationary pressures already seen at the producer level, it’s no surprise to see the pass-through to the consumer taking place, as we’ve been pointing to for months. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open in classic turnaround Tuesday fashion as they look to take back some of yesterday’s sharp gains. The VIX is up 5.7% from yesterday’s close, currently sitting just above 21, though well below the recent highs above 28 seen last week. The dollar is looking at a turnaround Tuesday as well, up 0.3% to trade near 102 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are sharply higher to start the session, with 2-year yields up near 15-basis points to trade near 4.70%, 10-year yields up 9-basis points to trade near 4.955%, and 30-year yields up 6-basis points to trade just below 5.32%. Crude oil prices are continuing lower amid de-escalatory rhetoric coming from the Trump administration, with nearby WTI down 2.2% on the day to trade below $84.50 while nearby Brent is down 3.4% to trade near $89.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly lower at the break.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 9

November 9 – Stock futures built on Friday’s consolidation, as value buyers slowly re-entered the market overnight. We’ll get key inflation data this week, with the consumer price index for October scheduled for release tomorrow, followed by the producer price index on Friday. Scheduled negotiations regarding both major wars on commodity logistics will also take place over the next few days. The VIX slid lower to trade near 23, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.83% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.52%. WTI crude oil prices are near $87, while Brent trades near $94 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex traded mixed to weaker overnight, with traders now focused on tomorrow’s big USDA WASDE crop report.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 6

November 6 – Volatility remains high on Wall Street this morning, as we add the monthly jobs report to the post-election market correction. The Nasdaq dropped sharply on Thursday amid a fear that the Democrats taking over Congress would create major challenges for tech companies – especially those involved with AI. It’s trying to bounce this morning, but the headlines over AI risks continue to flow. Today’s jobs report should help to redirect some of that focus momentarily, but the possibility of more volatility clearly remains with us. As such, the VIX – Wall Street’s “fear index” – is trading near 27 at this hour. My observation over the decades is that commodity assets struggle to sustain rallies when the VIX is above 30, unless that asset has a strong story of its own. The dollar index is trading near 102.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.86%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%. WTI crude oil is trading near $91, while Brent trades near $98 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector traded mixed overnight, with wheat posting double-digit losses, while corn and soybeans were either side of unchanged in early trade.

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