Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 18

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 18 Oct 2021, 13:34

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

October 18 – Stock futures came under mild selling pressure overnight amid lingering inflation worries, despite strong earnings reports thus far this quarter. The VIX traded near 18 this morning, after falling to a six-week low below 16 on Friday, reflecting elevated concerns on Wall Street. The dollar index posted modest gains above 94 this morning as yields on 10-year Treasuries traded near 1.62%, putting them just below recent four-month highs. Crude oil prices are up 1% this morning at new seven-year highs, while the Ags are mostly in the red with modest losses on seasonal harvest selling.

Wall Street is resigned to inflation being a more perpetual problem, with Washington slowly coming to that realization. The question is, at what point will it slow consumer spending? The U.S. consumer is still flush with cash from the past year’s stimulus checks, and overall monetary policy. The Fed balance sheet is up to $8.5 trillion, which is more than twice levels seen just before the pandemic. The Fed reports that there is still $2.2 trillion of cash in circulation, up from 812 million prior to the pandemic. While there are obvious exceptions, the consumer still has ample cash on hand to pay the higher prices that are a product of inflation. That is expected to continue through the holiday shopping period, keeping supply chain disruptions in place into the first quarter of next year, before perhaps a slowdown in consumer spending closer to “normal” levels allows problems to ease. Of course, that’s assuming that no additional stimulus programs – fiscal or monetary – are added between now and then.

China’s economy grew at a 4.9% pace year-on-year in the third quarter, coming in slightly below expectations of 5.2% growth and well below the 18.3% robust growth pace posted in the first quarter. In other words, China’s economic recovery is losing steam as it maintains its zero-tolerance policy toward Covid. Today’s disappointing numbers pressured Asian stocks as confidence in China’s economy erodes lower. A couple of new local Covid cases were reported in the weekend from a tour group that tested negative in Shanghai and Gansu, but then tested positive in Shaanxi. Positive cases mean more local / regionalized quarantines, which is why tourism has struggled so much in China this year. Travel is down, prices are higher, and people are spending less. China’s economy is still growing, but the waning momentum has policymakers concerned.

Third quarter pork production totaled 12.02 million metric tons in China, according to its stats bureau. That puts pork production up 43% year-on-year for the third quarter, or at roughly 90% of levels seen prior to African Swine Fever hitting three years ago. The industry is far more commercialized than it was three years ago, which should help stabilize supplies in the years to come. Pork is still the protein of choice among the people of China, but not to the extent that it was prior to the record high prices of the past few years. China Direct, from our Shanghai office, notes that mutton production was up 5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, while beef production rose 3.9%, and poultry output was up 3.8%. China is also now a significant importer of U.S. beef. Some Chinese high-end restaurants now no longer feature pork in their offerings.

Local and regionalized power outages are slowly improving in China, but the problem has not yet been resolved. Thermal coal prices rallied the daily limit higher, up 11%, in the first 30 minutes of the trading session today. The government changed its policy last week to allow a 20% increase in electricity prices, but that still has many coal powered plants operating at a loss, if they operate at all. This creates more inflationary pressures for China’s slowing economy. Rising inflation within a stagnant economy equals stagflation.

Fertilizer production is one of the victims of China’s outages, similar to the lost production seen in Europe as well. China accounts for 39% of global phosphate operating capacity, and roughly 32% of the world’s exports. Reports inside of China suggest that the government has taken steps to either slow and/or stop export shipments through at least June of next year, although that cannot be confirmed. China also accounts for roughly a third of the global urea market. It has not yet taken the drastic steps for urea that it did for phosphate, but the current energy situation puts the supply at risk. They do not export any urea to the United States, but it is a global market, so any significant shortfall impacts U.S. supplies and prices as well. The greater problem for nitrogen fertilizer currently is the lost production in Europe, following a surge of natural gas prices that make fertilizer production unprofitable relative to other products and services. This fertilizer problem represents a global risk for corn production in 2022.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.