Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now.  Download your report  →

StoneX logo
Contact us

Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 21

Mike Castle
Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Add us as preferred source on Google

October 21 – Stock futures are pointing to a strong open, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq following yesterday’s SpaceX earnings which we’ll touch on in more depth below. The VIX is off slightly to start the day, hovering near 17.1 at the time of writing, its lowest level so far this week. The dollar is sitting just below unchanged, near 101.71, after touching a three-week low just above 101.5 yesterday. Treasury yields are lower to start the day, with 2-year yields trading at 4.774%, 10-year yields at 5.098%, and 30-year yields at 5.409%. Crude oil is modestly lower, with nearby WTI and Brent both down 0.8% to trade near $97.40 and $107.90, respectively. The ags are widely in the red, with the sharpest losses seen in the wheat complex amid this week’s fresh push for diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine.

Big tech earnings are in focus today and in the days ahead, with SpaceX providing a fresh dose of optimism in their Q3 earnings released after yesterday’s close. The company officially broke into the black with net income of $4.4B during the quarter, with revenue of $14.6B representing an impressive 161% year-over-year increase. Lofty revenue targets moving forward were maintained, with the broader market signal being the company’s intentions to continue their exceptionally strong AI infrastructure spending, reporting huge cloud-compute demand, ultimately supportive for the AI investment theme and overall demand for chips, networking gear, power equipment, and data center infrastructure. That aggressive spending, with $19.6B in capex in Q3 and an expected Q4 capex of $35B - $40B, is fine while growth stays explosive, but investors have become increasingly sensitive to any slowdown in corresponding revenue increases. Netflix also reported their Q3 results after yesterday’s close, with a headline earnings beat as revenue rose roughly 12% year-on-year to $12.87B, but the stock came under immediate pressure, looking to gap down to a roughly two-year low in pre-market trading, due to softer Q4 guidance relative to estimates and a reduction in ad-revenue expectations. Netflix was once grouped with the handful of companies capable of moving the entire tech sector, but its relevance has faded as the market's focus shifted from streaming growth to AI, cloud computing, semiconductors, and hyperscale infrastructure spending.

More big names in tech are due to report after today’s close, including Meta, Tesla, Texas Instruments, and Lam Research. Given last week’s AI-led selloff, investors are likely to focus heavily on 2027 spending guidance this earnings season. Of today’s group, Meta is likely to be under the most scrutiny given their ranking as one of the world’s largest AI investors despite lacking the cloud-computing revenue streams that support its peers. The focus on Tesla earnings will likely center more on comments from Musk regarding the progress of robotaxis and the potential of a Tesla/SpaceX merger in the future. Texas Instruments will give the market a broad read on industrial and auto chip demand, while Lam Research is seen as a gauge of AI-driven semiconductor equipment spending. While today’s reports could drive volatility as money rotates between sectors, there’s plenty more excitement on tap next week as well, with Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet due to report next Wednesday (10/28), followed by Amazon on Thursday (10/29), and Apple the following Monday (11/2).

U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff is meeting with Russian President Putin in St. Petersburg today after yesterday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Norway. While no major breakthroughs were expected in yesterday’s talks, it does appear that progress was made in stabilizing the U.S. / Ukraine relationship after the notable deterioration seen in the last month. Participants on all sides described the talks as constructive, positive, and productive, with a push on renewing trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S., something that Witkoff passed along to Putin in their meeting as well. From a practical standpoint, it does appear that some progress was made in mending relations as Zelenskyy noted that U.S. intelligence sharing on missile strikes “works now,” though some contention regarding restrictions on Starlink remains. On another practical note, today’s talks with Russia started with the release of U.S. citizen Stephen Hubbard who had been held in Russian captivity since 2022. Putin’s investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev was also present for the talks, reiterating the potential for U.S. / Russian economic cooperation. Putin also reiterated the push for a three-way meeting with himself, U.S. President Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of next month’s APEC summit in China. While it’s far too soon to get overly optimistic about ending the nearly five-year old war, the renewal of the diplomatic push appears to be taking some risk premium out of the market. On the ground, however, Russia’s defense ministry stated they had struck three cargo vessels yesterday in the Ukrainian Danube port of Reni, as well as two other cargo vessels on their way to Odesa, the latest round in the ongoing Black Sea disruptions that continues to significantly limit commodity flow from the region.

Average 30-year mortgage rates took a step back to 7.41% in the week ended October 16, down from the three-year high of 7.50% seen in the week prior and snapping the streak of eight consecutive weekly increases. Still, overall mortgage application volume fell 5.3% week-on-week to carve out another fresh low since the first week of 2025. Refinancing applications fell 2.0% week-on-week, but the primary weakness now centers on applications for new purchases, falling a much sharper 7.3% week-on-week. Both remain at levels not seen since the first week of 2025. Housing sector data this week has been downright ugly, with home builder sentiment hitting a 14-year low in October and September’s pending home sales and housing starts both seeing much sharper than anticipated declines. While it’s encouraging to see the first weekly decline in roughly two months, the difference between a 7.41% mortgage and a 7.50% mortgage doesn’t mean much for prospective buyers, likely keeping pressure on the housing market in the near-term.

image 139383

  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 21

October 21 – Stock futures are pointing to a strong open, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq following yesterday’s SpaceX earnings which we’ll touch on in more depth below. The VIX is off slightly to start the day, hovering near 17.1 at the time of writing, its lowest level so far this week. The dollar is sitting just below unchanged, near 101.71, after touching a three-week low just above 101.5 yesterday. Treasury yields are lower to start the day, with 2-year yields trading at 4.774%, 10-year yields at 5.098%, and 30-year yields at 5.409%. Crude oil is modestly lower, with nearby WTI and Brent both down 0.8% to trade near $97.40 and $107.90, respectively. The ags are widely in the red, with the sharpest losses seen in the wheat complex amid this week’s fresh push for diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Bigger U.S. Soybean Crop Fails to Loosen a Tightening Balance Sheet

A bigger U.S. soybean harvest is meeting crush, biofuel and Chinese demand strong enough to shrink ending stocks. That balance explains why harvest pressure trims soybean rallies but leaves a floor under the market.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

U.S. Biofuel RIN Gap Keeps a Bid Under Soybean Oil Feedstock Demand

The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard turns every gallon of biodiesel and renewable diesel into a credit, which makes RIN generation a direct read on soybean oil feedstock demand. A wide gap to the annual target supports that demand, while EPA small refinery exemptions and an unresolved reallocation cloud when it arrives.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: Your access to global markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.