Perspective: Morning Commentary November 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 17 Nov 2025, 13:50

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

November 17 – U.S. equities futures are fairly flat this morning, with the government having reopened but the onslaught of economic data not on the way until later this week. Major earnings reports are ahead later this week as well, led by chip giant Nvidia on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar is edging higher against a basket of major foreign currencies to start the week, as are WTI crude oil futures, while gold continues Friday’s decline. Ten-year treasury yields are up slightly this morning with the VIX index continuing to rise as well.

Empire State Manufacturing for the month of November beat expectations at a solid 18.7 reading, up from 10.7 last month and the average 5.8 trade guess; the New York Fed’s indicated the strongest expansion pace in a year thanks to increased new orders and shipments. August U.S. Census Bureau national construction spending is seen coming in at another 0.1% month-over-month decline later this morning, matching the July reading; otherwise, as previously stated, the bulk of the key economic releases will increase into late week, highlighted by the September jobs report on Thursday.

So what do we know about the upcoming data flow? Not as much as we’d like. The Census Bureau with catch up their construction/manufacturing/trade reports quickly this week, while the Bureau of Economic Analysis is “working to update their schedule”, in conjunction with the BLS, though the Fed’s major economic indicators will surely be prioritized. October data - whenever that is published - will likely be an issue due to the government shutdown. On the grain market side it’s just as messy, with export sales quickly getting a catch-up schedule, but still no word on delayed data from the CFTC or NASS. It will likely take until the end of calendar 2025 to get a handle on things…

Soybean optimism continued overnight despite a rough start to the week, following up the post-USDA decline; the bulls didn’t see what they wanted from Friday’s data dump. That included a 50-million-bushel U.S. soybean export decline and moderate (at best) flash sales to China and “unknown”. The now-spot January soybean contract (2025 daily chart below right) is once again back to test highs this morning; our in-house daily fund estimates had spec adding somewhere near 200k net soybean contracts across the government shutdown, though those estimates have yet to be confirmed or denied, with the CFTC yet to issue their official weekly report since the week ending Tuesday, September 23. No catch-up release schedule has been posted yet either. The trade will at least have daily flash sales to focus on going forward, along with delayed weekly sales reports, and current inspections data which will be published as usual this morning. The first moderate soybean flash sales to “unknown” didn’t hit the wires until late October, so official sales and inspections won’t reflect those for quite some time yet.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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