By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
World Gold Council Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, 2021; gold still centre stage; sustainable bonds making headway
The World Gold Council has recently released its 2021 annual Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, which looks at the evolution of the Official Sector’s attitudes to gold. The key takeaways are on the Council’s website here, and there is a full publication sitting behind that in .pdf form.
The major conclusions are as follows: -
Gold, bonds and crypto:
This year only 11% of respondents did not know their plans for gold this year, down from 20% last year. Among other “non-traditional” asset classes, the first time the WGC has asked this question, the most popular are sustainable bonds, as ESG becomes ever more in focus, especially among advanced economies. Some 80% of advanced economy central banks planned to increase exposure in this sector, with 30% of emerging market central banks taking the same view.
No central banks reported any plans to invest in cryptocurrencies.
“Performance during times of crisis” is now top of the list of reasons for holding gold, with 79% of respondents marking it as highly or somewhat relevant, up from fourth in 2019 and second last year, with COVID clearly a driving force here, and gold’s robust performance did not go unnoticed. “Historical position” is now lying second, with the other two stalwarts, “long-term store of value” and “effective portfolio diversifier” tying for third. One interesting point is the split between central banks in advanced nations and those in emerging markets. As the WGC notes, given that emerging market central banks normally have a higher challenge in maintaining orderly capital flows and currency stability it is probably no surprise that 93% of the emerging market central banks pointed to gold’s role in periods of crisis, although over 50% (i.e. 53%) of this in advanced economies also cited this element as their most compelling reason.
Within buying patterns, the Over the Counter market is now just 43% of those buying gold, down from 60% last year, while 4% are buying through ETFs and another 4% using financial derivatives. In what may be good news for the refiners, just less than 25% of respondents (most of which are in the emerging market countries) have considered upgrading gold holdings that do not currently conform to Good Delivery standard.
Among gold management patterns, roughly 35% of respondents actively manage their reserves, largely through deposits, followed by swaps (giving golds as collateral).
On balance, the Official Sector is expected to remain a net gold purchaser, although not at the heady levels of the past decade as central bankers’ views are increasingly informed by global market volatility concerns and the path of the economic recovery.
To round off, we have analysed the latest Council's latest workbook on Official Sector foreign exchanges reserves, as from the IMF, which shows on the surface that, at the end of March, gold comprised 13% by value of gold and foreign exchange combined. As a benchmark for portfolio management this is deceptive as it includes not only the United States, which by definition cannot hold dollars, but also a number of countries who in the past have been on a gold standard. If these are stripped out then that percentage drops to 9%, which is more realistic as a balancing factor in an institutional (or indeed a personal) portfolio.
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