By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
StoneX Bullion weekly gold and silver round-up; price forecasts, gold supply-demand balance, revisions
Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis, EMEA & Asia
Tel: +44 203 580 6115 / mobile +44 7384 833897
18 August 2025
Weekly roundup for StoneX Bullion Price forecast update; revised gold Supply & Demand…
18 August 2025
Jewellery and coin&bar markets combined; market share Q2 2024
Source: World Gold Council, StoneX
Outlook: unchanged. For the much longer-term, silver has a robust fundamental outlook but for now it is stabilising above $36 while resistance at $38 and above is still proving effective. The speed with which gold futures unwound the premium after the President tweeted about no gold tariffs underpins our view that there is not much upside potential from there, barring a black swan or major geopolitical development.
Our comment on tariffs last week is worth re-iterating and will be found at the end of this piece
US fed funds rate – markets pricing in 83% chance of a cut in September
Gold supply-demand balance update:
| Tonnes | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025e | 2026f |
| SUPPLY | ||||||||
| Mine supply | 3,599 | 3,484 | 3,576 | 3,634 | 3,646 | 3,661 | 3695 | 3,700 |
| Recycling | 1,276 | 1,293 | 1,136 | 1,140 | 1,239 | 1,370 | 1500 | 1,300 |
| Net hedging | 6 | 39 | 7 | 9 | 59 | 57 | 20 | 50 |
| Total | 4,881 | 4,738 | 4,705 | 4,765 | 4,944 | 4,974 | 5,215 | 5,050 |
| DEMAND | ||||||||
| Jewellery | 2,152 | 1,324 | 2,231 | 2,195 | 2,191 | 1,878 | 1900 | 2,000 |
| Industrial | 333 | 309 | 337 | 315 | 305 | 326 | 340 | 353.6 |
| Bar & coin | 871 | 902 | 1,180 | 1,222 | 1,190 | 1,188 | 1000 | 1,100 |
| Net Official Sector | 605 | 255 | 450 | 1,080 | 1,051 | 1,045 | 850 | 850 |
| Total | 3,961 | 2,790 | 4,198 | 4,812 | 4,737 | 4,437 | 4,090 | 4,304 |
| Balance | 920 | 1,948 | 507 | 47 | 207 | 538 | 1,125 | 746 |
| ETPs | 404 | 893 | 189 | 110 | 244 | 7 | 700 | |
| Residual balance | 516 | 1,055 | 695 | 62 | 452 | 544 | 425 |
Source: Metals Focus, StoneX
Price forecast:
| Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Gold | 2860 | 3280 | 3320 | 3000 | 3115 | 2900 |
| Silver | 31.88 | 33.67 | 37.3 | 34 | 34.21 | 36 |
| Platinum | 969 | 1075 | 1346 | 1250 | 1160 | 1100 |
| Palladium | 961 | 991 | 1120 | 960 | 1008 | 1000 |
Repeat of the comment on 11th August
“Comment – press unwittingly overstating the gold action last Friday
All the volatility in the COMEX futures contracts (notably December, the active month) last week came about because of the following: -
A Swiss refiner asked the United States Customs and Border Protection for clarification about the tariff position with respect to 100-ounce bars and kilobars. The authority ruled that these bars should not be under the 7108.12.10 tariff (unwrought non-monetary bullion or doré) and classified into 7108.13.5500, which includes semimanufactured or powder forms and thus incurs tariffs.
At this point the futures prices on COMEX jumped, but, while the spread between spot and December expanded to just over $100 at one point, and thus hit the headlines with words like “record”, it wasn’t actually that dramatic. The average premium between spot and the active contract has averaged 5.4% since the start of 2024 and 3.1% since the start of this year. Last Friday the percentage premium was just 2.8% before sliding back to 1.7% this morning (Monday) which is where is it was last Thursday.
The White House has said that it will be issuing an executive order in the near future, clarifying the position.
Once again this raises the debate about the COMEX contract and London Good Delivery. COMEX good delivery is 100-ounces or kilobars; London Good Delivery (LGD) bars are 400-ounces. In lockdown, with so few planes flying, there was an adjustment and increased flexibility allowing for partial delivery in LGD. This was temporary however and there is an argument that the two centres should be fungible. There is also a rule in place that COMEX gold must be vaulted within 150 miles of New York City; a case could be made for easing this restriction.
Meanwhile some politicians in Switzerland are making political capital out of all this, given that it was the swelling in shipment of COMEX-deliverable metal ahead of the tariff deadline in April that bloated the trade balance between the US and Switzerland. One has even suggested that the refiners foot the bill.
The majority of US trade counterparties are now subject to 15% tariffs but there are some outliers. In China’s case it looks as if there will be a further extension of the negotiation period, possibly of 90 days.
Some of the rates that have hit the headlines include 30% on South Africa, 35% on Canada (Trump has implicitly tied this into Canada’s recognition of Palestine as a State); 39% on Switzerland (see above), which has raised some hackles, 40% on Libya, 35% on Iraq and 40% on Laos”.
The S&P, gold and the dollar
The S&P/Gold and S&P/Cu ratios
Gold, one-year view; still in a worryingly narrow band
Gold:dollar correlation; tightening again; now at-0.48
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Silver, one-year view; resistance at $38
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
COMEX gold inventories, tonnes
Source CME via Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold in key local currencies.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold:silver ratio, January 2024 to-date
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t) –
COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)
Source for both charts: CFTC, StoneX
ETF
Silver: The Bloomberg figures suggest that the net ETF creations in H1 2025 were 1,761t, of which 989t were in June. In other words, 56% of the net gains to that point were in June. Looked at another way, on an unweighted annualised basis, June uptake would be equivalent to 11,864t, or the equivalent of five months’ silver mine production. Activity has been mixed since, but the balance has been favourable with net additions of 541t in July to 24,602 and a further 93t in the first eleven trading days in August, according to Bloomberg. World mine production is just less than 26,000t.
Gold: the latest figures from the World Gold Council, up to 8th August, show a solid increase of 14.7t in one week, taking global holdings to 3,652.0t with gains of 81.6t to 1,887.1t in North America, but small falls in Europe and Asia to 1,374.9t and 319.8t respectively... Bloomberg figures (not as extensive) imply a gain of 16t since then, but this is only approximate. World gold mine production is 3,661t (Metals Focus figures).
| 18 August 2025 | Previous week | % change | Year-to-date | Range Jan 2024 onwards | Range as % | ||
| Min | Max | ||||||
| Gold (pm LBMA price) | 3,335.50 | 3,394.15 | -1.73% | 26.04% | 1,985.10 | 3,435.35 | 73.06% |
| Silver (LBMA price) | 37.73 | 38.29 | -1.46% | 28.29% | 22.09 | 39.32 | 78.04% |
| Platinum (pm LBMA price) | 1,335.00 | 1,328.00 | 0.53% | 44.95% | 920.00 | 1,474.00 | 60.22% |
| Palladium (pm LBMA price) | 1,126.00 | 1,140.00 | -1.23% | 22.26% | 852.00 | 1,297.00 | 52.23% |
| S&P 500 | 6,449.80 | 6,389.45 | 0.94% | 9.19% | 4,688.68 | 6,468.54 | 37.96% |
| $:€ | 1.1703 | 1.1641 | 0.53% | 12.44% | 1.0244 | 1.1806 | 15.25% |
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Platinum and palladium may sit in the precious metals family, but their biggest moves often come from industrial demand rather than safe-haven flows. Understanding that split explains why the two metals led the wider metals complex higher while gold and silver waited on very different news.
Gold has surged into a decade-long trendline, and the next U.S. CPI report now looms as the catalyst that could decide its direction. A hotter inflation print risks tipping an overbought market into a pullback, while a softer one could reopen the path toward record highs.
Nonfam weakness boosts metals
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
