Below are the summaries straight from the report:
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CORN
-This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks.
-Corn beginning stocks are lowered 25 million bushels, based on greater feed and residual use for 2020/21 as indicated in the June 30 Grain Stocks report.
-Corn production for 2021/22 is forecast 175 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report.
-The national average corn yield is unchanged at 179.5 bushels per acre.
-During June, harvested-area weighted precipitation for the major corn producing states was below normal but did not represent an extreme deviation from the 1988 to 2020 average. For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July and USDA will provide its first survey-based corn yield forecast of the season in the August 12 Crop Production report.
-Total U.S. corn use for 2021/22 is forecast 75 million bushels higher with increases for feed and residual use and exports. Feed and residual use is raised reflecting a larger crop.
-Corn exports are raised 50 million bushels, with sharply lower exports expected for Brazil.
-With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 75 million bushels.
-The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $5.60 per bushel.
-This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and use, larger trade, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher, with a projected increase for Russia based on higher indicated area.
-For 2020/21, foreign corn production is lowered, with reductions for Brazil and Paraguay more than offsetting an increase for Argentina. Major global trade changes for 2021/22 include larger corn exports for the United States and Russia with a reduction for Mexico.
-For 2020/21, corn exports are raised for Argentina but lowered for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2021. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are virtually unchanged from last month.
SOYBEANS /Oilseeds
-U.S. oilseed production for 2021/22 is projected at 130.5 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month, with increases for sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed partly offset with a reduction for canola.
-Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month.
-Harvested area, forecast at 86.7 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is unchanged from last month but up 4.4 million from last year.
-The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 50.8 bushels per acre.
-Soybean supply and use forecasts are unchanged from last month.
-Soybean changes for 2020/21 include lower imports, crush, and exports.
-With offsetting changes in supply and use, ending stocks are unchanged at 135 million bushels.
-The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $11.05 per bushel, down $0.20 as early-season sales at lower prices continue to weigh on the season-average forecast.
-The soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month.
-The soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents.
-The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, crush, and ending stocks compared to last month.
-Global oilseed production is raised 2.5 million tons to 635.4 million, with higher sunflowerseed, rapeseed, cottonseed, and peanuts partly offset by lower soybean output.
-Australian rapeseed production is raised on beneficial early-season rainfall and higher area. Canadian canola production is lowered as early-season drought conditions impact yields and offset an increase to area. Canada’s soybean production is also lowered based on lower area.
-The 2021/22 global soybean ending stocks are increased 1.9 million tons to 94.5 million as higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina are partly offset by lower Chinese stocks. The stocks revisions reflect notable balance sheet changes for Brazil and Argentina in 2020/21 and China in 2020/21 and 2021/22.
-Exports for Brazil and Argentina for 2020/21 are reduced as high prices lead to lower shipments to China.
-China’s imports are reduced 2 million tons to 98 million and 1 million tons to 102 million for 2020/21 and 2021/22, respectively. Another notable oilseed change includes a 0.3-million ton reduction to 18.2 million for Malaysian 2020/21 palm oil production.
WHEAT
-The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks.
-Supplies are lowered on reduced wheat production and beginning stocks.
-All wheat production is lowered 152 million bushels to 1,746 million.
-The all wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from last month.
-The NASS July Crop Production report provides survey-based production forecasts for all wheat classes for the first time in the 2021/22 crop year. The production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year for these two classes due to the severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains. Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production, both on increased harvested acreage and a higher yield.
-Imports are raised 20 million bushels to 145 million.
-Beginning stocks are reduced on the latest NASS Grain Stocks report, which indicated lower 2020/2021 ending stocks than previously estimated.
-Projected exports and feed and residual usage are lowered to 875 and 170 million bushels, respectively, on the reduction in durum and other spring wheat supplies. These would be the smallest U.S. wheat exports since the 2015/16 marketing year.
-Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 105 million bushels to 665 million and are the lowest since 2013/14.
-The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $6.60.
-The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, fractionally lower consumption, increased trade, and lower ending stocks.
-Supplies are projected to decline 5.3 million tons to 1,082.6 million on reduced beginning stocks in several countries and lower U.S. production not offsetting higher foreign production.
-Global production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 792.4 million but still remains at a record.
-Australia’s production is raised 1.5 million tons to 28.5 million, based on continued widespread precipitation benefiting emergence and crop establishment. Russia’s production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 85.0 million.
-Winter wheat production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 64.0 million on decreased harvested area from a damaging early spring freeze more than offsetting higher yields on continued favorable conditions across Western Russia. Spring wheat is also lowered 0.5 million tons to 21.0 million on reduced yields with hot and dry conditions affecting the spring wheat region of Central Russia. Kazakhstan is lowered 1.0 million tons to 13.0 million on similar unfavorable conditions. The EU and United Kingdom are increased a combined 1.4 million tons to 138.2 and 14.8 million, respectively on continued favorable conditions across Northern and Central Europe.
-Projected 2021/22 world consumption is fractionally lower at 790.9 million on lower feed and residual use in Russia, the United States, and Kazakhstan mostly being offset by higher food, seed, and industrial use in several countries.
-Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 0.8 million tons to a record 204.0 million, on increased exports by the EU, Ukraine, and Australia offsetting reductions in Canada, Kazakhstan, and the United States.
-Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered 5.1 million tons to 291.7 million but remain above last year.
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