By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
As of Mid-March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz disruption is tightening global fertilizer supply at a critical moment for urea and phosphate markets. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply transits this chokepoint, but its importance to nitrogen and phosphate exporters is equally strategic. Vessel hesitancy, delayed loadings and curtailed production behind the Strait are now constraining fertilizer trade flows. The result is a supply environment that remains fragile even before accounting for policy and gas market risks elsewhere.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, has spent years analyzing global nitrogen and phosphate trade flows and advising commercial buyers on risk management. His direct tracking of export volumes, vessel movements and production shifts gives him a distinct vantage point on how chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz translate into pricing power and tightness across agricultural inputs.
The Strait of Hormuz constraints are directly limiting urea export flows from key producing nations. Linville explains that Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia are either involved in the conflict or positioned behind the Strait, and that "we're going on the second week now of that strait being closed down, which basically means those two nations may as well be shut off". Consequently, vessels are not arriving to load cargo, and some production is being curtailed because finished product cannot move. This restriction reduces available export tons at a time when the global urea balance is already tight, amplifying pricing pressure across importing regions.
Restart frictions mean fertilizer tightness will likely persist even if the Strait reopens quickly. Linville notes that even in a best case scenario, "it is going to take a long time for this market to get back to normal" because ships must reposition, docks are limited and manufacturing plants must be refired. As a result, the disruption is not confined to days lost at sea but cascades through logistics chains and production schedules. Linville adds that "this is going to be the impact we're going to feel for the remainder of 2026", reinforcing the view that producers retain leverage in negotiations as supply remains constrained.
The Strait sits in front of major urea exporters including Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia. When vessels hesitate or flows slow, export volumes fall and global supply tightens.
Even with a rapid reopening, ships must reposition and plants must restart, which delays supply normalization and can keep markets tight for months.
According to Linville, today’s global supply and demand fundamentals are significantly worse than during 2021 to 2022, particularly from a production risk perspective.
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--- Written by Lindo Xulu, StoneX TV Journalist
--- Expert: Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX
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