By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
The U.S. Dollar Index price action is shifting from correction risk toward broader downside pressure as the dollar extends a third straight weekly decline. The latest move matters because the U.S. Dollar Index has already broken below the yearly open and the 52-week moving average, weakening an uptrend that held for much of the prior rally. That change raises the stakes around the next support band, where technical confirmation could trigger a more forceful repricing of dollar direction. In fast-moving macro conditions, those levels now sit at the center of short-term trading decisions.
Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist at StoneX, has extensive experience tracking multi-time-frame market structure across major currency pairs and the U.S. Dollar Index. His perspective is especially relevant this week because his framework connects long term resistance failure with near term support triggers that can shape how traders respond to both technical and macro volatility.
U.S. Dollar Index weakness is becoming more technically significant because the market has already broken the late January uptrend and moved through a major pivot zone. Boutros states that "we broke that, late January uptrend last week", confirming that the prior advance has lost structural support. That breakdown leaves 97.88 as the first major downside checkpoint, especially because it converges with the December low close and near-term pitchfork structure. If the U.S. Dollar Index cannot hold that area, traders may treat the move as validation that bearish momentum is broadening rather than simply pausing.
U.S. Dollar Index downside pressure could extend further because the next support zone sits deeper in the yearly range and carries broader technical significance. Boutros identifies that risk directly, noting "the 618 retracement of the yearly range. That takes down to 9749". That matters because a break of initial support would not leave the US Dollar Index without a roadmap, but instead shifts attention to a clearly defined secondary objective. Consequently, each failed support test increases the probability that traders will reprice the dollar toward a more sustained retracement phase.
The first major support level is 97.88. Michael Boutros identifies that area as the initial downside target and says a close below it is needed to fuel the next leg lower.
The next level is 97.49. That level is tied to the 61.8 percent retracement of the yearly range and becomes more important if 97.88 gives way.
Boutros says broader bearish invalidation is up at 99.49. A move above that January high would suggest a more significant low is already in place.
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--- Written by Lindo Xulu, StoneX TV Journalist
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist at StoneX
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