Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
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What the 1970s Still Teach Traders About Inflation and Supply
By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Price memory in commodity markets often extends further than most investors realize. The coffee and cocoa sectors, which appear overheated in nominal terms, are in fact subdued when adjusted for decades of inflation. This gap between headline highs and real values reframes how traders interpret scarcity, demand, and speculative tension. It also exposes how inflation quietly reshapes market psychology without changing the underlying supply story.
Fiona Cincotta, StoneX Senior Market Analyst, speaks with Fernando Maximiliano, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager, and Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst, whose insights link historical price cycles to today’s inflation context.
Key Themes from the Discussion
- Inflation-adjusted prices show the 1970s remain the benchmark for real commodity highs.
- Recurring production shocks in Brazil and West Africa echo historical volatility patterns.
- Investor behavior continues to be guided by lessons from past inflationary cycles.
Watch the Full Conversation
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Inflation’s Grip on Perceived Scarcity
Across markets, traders tend to judge extremes in nominal terms rather than in purchasing power. As “the value of money decreases over time”, Lucca Bezzon explains, inflation-adjusted metrics offer a truer gauge of how intense price rallies really are. In both coffee and cocoa, the 1970s stand out as the last genuine spikes in real terms. Those peaks reflected structural shortages, not just currency erosion, offering a vital caution for interpreting modern charts.
Cycles of Supply, Weather, and Investment
Fernando Maximiliano highlights how natural shocks continue to shape the soft commodity landscape, noting that “the frost was able to decrease dramatically the production in Brazil”. The comparison to 1970s events reinforces that supply collapses trigger multiyear investment cycles. As higher prices prompt new planting, the eventual recovery resets global balances and moderates inflation-driven panic. Yet, as both analysts warn, today’s climate volatility makes these rebounds slower and less predictable than before.
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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Fernando Maximiliano, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager
--- Expert: Lucca Bezzon, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Analyst
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