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Market Analyst
Crude oil has pulled back more than 11% from its latest highs, in line with U.S.-Iran negotiation hopes and expectations of stronger congressional oversight after the U.S. midterm elections. Brent crude has broken below its uptrend support while WTI crude oil is still holding above its multi-month uptrend support, leaving the two benchmarks one step apart in confirming a broader bearish shift. Key support levels on both charts now decide if that gap closes.
Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst at StoneX, covers forex, stocks, commodities and equity indices, with a focus on technical and intermarket analysis. That coverage gives insight into what is driving Brent and WTI, from broken uptrend support to fading daily momentum and shifting cross-asset risk appetite.
Brent crude has dropped below the uptrend support connecting its consecutive higher lows and is now testing a key psychological support level. Specifically, the daily RSI on Brent has fallen below its 50 neutral mark after leaving overbought territory, a setup that has marked turning points before. "We had also a notable pullback from overbought levels last seen in September, July and in March," Hilal says, adding that those episodes aligned with notable bearish reversals on the chart. As a result, Brent's next moves center on two lines, the support now being tested and the former uptrend line overhead, which has turned into resistance.
According to Hilal, "We may possibly be on track with the broader bearish shift, however, it still requires confirmation from key support levels in terms of WTI." WTI crude oil is holding above the uptrend support connecting its consecutive higher lows, along with a key Fibonacci extension zone, whereas Brent has already slipped beneath its equivalent line. A sustained break below WTI's support would bring both benchmarks into line on the bearish side. Conversely, the resistance zone where WTI recorded three consecutive pullbacks marks the line between the current pullback and a renewed bullish trend. Hilal adds that it is "still premature to call the lasting geopolitical shift" behind the selling.
The daily RSI on Brent and WTI shows how much momentum sits behind the pullback, with readings below the 50 neutral mark pointing to bearish sentiment. Fibonacci extensions drawn across the corrective cycle show where each benchmark is finding support. Cross-asset moves add a third signal because, as Hilal puts it, "markets are naturally forward looking. And that's why we are currently seeing a bullish reversal across major risk assets." Gold, silver, Bitcoin and U.S. indices are rebounding while crude oil holds in bearish territory.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst
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Brent crude and WTI crude oil are sending different technical signals as crude pulls back from its highs. One benchmark has already broken its uptrend support, while the other is still holding the line that would confirm a broader bearish shift.
November 4 – Stock futures saw an unusually wide overnight trading range as the results of the U.S. midterm elections came in but are pointing to a sharply positive open to kick off the day, though we may be seeing a flow of money out of tech and into other sectors as policy expectations shift. For reference, tech heavy Nasdaq futures are up only 0.4% at the time of writing, while Dow Jones futures are up 2.2%, and S&P 500 futures are up 1.2%. Markets have often viewed divided government favorably, as political gridlock can limit major policy swings and provide businesses with a more predictable regulatory and fiscal environment. A unified government, by contrast, increases the likelihood that more of the governing party's agenda can be enacted, as we’ve seen demonstrated rather clearly since the beginning of 2025. With that said, the VIX has also fallen sharply this morning, currently down 13% on the day to hang near the 18 level. The dollar is sharply lower to start the day as well, currently down 0.5% to trade near 101.35, potentially a sign of investors heading back into risk-on mode with the election uncertainty behind us, as well as the potential for less aggressive tariff and Middle East policy. Treasury yields are quietly lower, with 2-year yields at 4.60%, 10-year yields at 4.92%, and 30-year yields at 5.303%. With the midterms out of the way, we’ve removed a major layer of noise, hopefully putting us back in a position where financial markets can begin shifting their focus from this uncertainty back toward economic fundamentals, policy implementation, and corporate earnings.
November 3 – It’s election day in the U.S., with the corresponding geopolitical uncertainty looking to drive a day of volatile, headline-driven trade. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open, with the Nasdaq hoping to find some turnaround Tuesday action to stop the bleeding from the recent selloff that has battered the tech sector and drove the index to its lowest close since late July yesterday. The VIX is off its overnight highs but remains elevated, hovering near 20.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is effectively unchanged to start the day, trading at 101.82. Treasury yields are quietly higher after their recent slide that has coincided with the selloff in the equities, particularly tech, potentially signaling some investors fleeing to safe havens, with 2-year yields at 4.585%, 10-year yields at 4.919%, and 30-year yields at 5.294% this morning. Meanwhile, the ags are mostly lower at the break.
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