By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
As January progresses, EUR/USD is moving lower within a clearly defined descending channel that has guided price action since late December. The decline follows a rejection from long-term retracement resistance that previously capped upside attempts. While the move itself has been orderly, attention is increasingly centered on the durability of downside structure rather than speed. Markets are now approaching a phase where reaction matters more than continuation.
Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, frames the euro’s outlook through the behavior of price at multi-month support levels and what that reveals about broader market conviction.
The euro is now trading toward a zone where several technical signals converge, including a key Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day moving average. Boutros highlights that “a more meaningful support now in view just below 1.16” will be central to determining the next phase of price action. A controlled reaction at that level would suggest the broader move remains corrective in nature. A decisive break, however, would imply that sellers retain structural control.
Markets often reveal intent not at resistance, but in how they behave once support is reached. As Boutros notes, “the reaction here should be more telling on guidance on euro moving forward”, underscoring that follow-through matters more than the test itself. If EUR/USD stabilizes or forms a base, it would signal that downside momentum is losing force. Failure to hold could open the door to a deeper move toward the mid-1.15 region and reinforce a larger correction.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst, FOREX.com
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