Trade Policy Risks and Weather Watchpoints for 2025 Says StoneX’s Suderman
Key Takeaways
- USDA's April WASDE report offered neutral data, but global trade and policy risks continue to loom large
- Corn export demand is strong, yet future biofuel policy remains a swing factor for market direction
- Weather volatility and tariff uncertainty could drive sharp market moves during the 2025 growing season
USDA Numbers Calm Markets but Don’t Eliminate Risk
Despite expectations leading into the April WASDE report, USDA’s global numbers landed squarely in the neutral zone. That gave grain markets room to breathe—for now. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, noted that while there were no major surprises, the context around these numbers remains anything but calm.
Suderman emphasized that corn demand strength was a notable bright spot, with year-to-date inspections running well ahead of pace needed to meet USDA targets. Soybeans were more ambiguous, with questions around crush demand and export pace creating lingering uncertainty. Wheat remains the least fundamentally supported of the three, with ample stocks and muted export interest.
Export Demand Holds for Corn as Markets Eye Biofuel Policy
Suderman pointed to continued strength in corn export inspections and ethanol use, both exceeding USDA expectations. But while that’s positive in the short term, future support will hinge on global demand resilience and the direction of U.S. energy policy—especially as it intersects with biofuels. The Trump administration’s signal to collaborate with Big Oil on a new biofuel framework raises hopes of clarity, but execution remains uncertain. Ethanol mandates are expected to remain near 15 billion gallons, while biodiesel targets are poised to rise—potentially lifting soybean demand if policy details align.
Weather Still the Big Unknown for Grains
While macro and trade dynamics often dominate headlines, Suderman reminded the audience that weather remains the biggest variable for grain markets. He underscored 2025 as a year with heightened weather risks, particularly for corn. Soil moisture maps and historical analogs point to a scenario in which July and August temperatures could make or break yields. Heat and dryness during these key months, especially in the western Corn Belt, could lead to a supply shock in a market not priced for stress.
Tariff and Shipping Costs Cast a Long Shadow
Trade policy remains a wildcard. Suderman detailed how the “Trump 2.0” tariff regime—with 10% blanket tariffs on nearly all countries and escalations for retaliatory moves—has created ripple effects across the ag economy. China, having chosen escalation over negotiation, now faces 125% tariffs, putting U.S. commodity exports to Asia in a precarious position. The administration’s proposed port fees for ships tied to China add another layer of concern, particularly for grain exporters. Depending on how these fees are structured and applied, they could represent a material cost increase for shippers.
Election-Year Headlines and Summer Volatility Could Sway Markets
Looking ahead, Suderman sees a market increasingly vulnerable to headline-driven volatility—from tariff feuds and regulatory shifts to unpredictable summer weather patterns. “We’ve moved from a world of data dependency to a world of narrative volatility,” Suderman said. “Markets are now trading tweets and tariffs as much as they are fundamentals.” With uncertainty elevated across all fronts, Suderman’s message to producers and market participants was clear: Stay nimble. A neutral USDA report may offer a short reprieve, but the 2025 growing season and trade landscape remain anything but settled. This article is based on insights shared during Arlan Suderman’s April 2025 Commodity and Economic Outlook webinar. Watch the full episode here.
Dive Deeper
Don’t miss Arlan’s monthly analysis and insights. Register today and receive advance notification before the next Commodity and Economic Outlook webinar.
Register Here
–– Written by: Andy Catsimanes
–– Expert: Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
