Precious Metals Talking points 073126: Fed meeting; Warsh lets the markets do the talking
US PPI headline likely misleading
Rhona O'Connell
- Precious Metals
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Why AI Spending Now Matters More Than Margins
Tesla is prioritizing artificial intelligence, autonomy and robotics even as higher investment weighs on margins and free cash flow. The shift challenges investors to decide whether near-term pressure is destroying value or building the platforms that could drive Tesla’s next growth phase.
Editorial Team
- Equities
Why the Fed and the Bank of England Drew Opposite Market Verdicts
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates on the same day and drew opposite reactions from bond markets. The split shows how communication and fiscal context, rather than the rate decision alone, now shape a central bank's standing.
Editorial Team
- Fixed Income
Specialty Crops Face the First Energy Price Squeeze
Fresh fruit and vegetable markets are often the first agricultural sectors to feel rising energy costs because transportation plays a much larger role in final pricing. As oil prices remain elevated, refrigerated logistics and distribution costs could become a more immediate driver of food inflation than grain prices.
Editorial Team
- Energy
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Copper Supply Faces a New China Driven Squeeze
China's copper market is reshaping global trade flows as policy changes reduce scrap availability and increase demand for refined metal. Combined with falling inventories and stronger import incentives, these developments suggest China is becoming a more important driver of copper prices.
Editorial Team
- Base Metals
Is Copper’s Physical Market Starting to Show Real World Tightness?
Copper hit a record high on 13th May of $14,153/t, driven by robust forecasts for copper’s future demand in electrification and AI data centers, a focus on unforeseen supply risks (created from the Iran war), concerns over the pull of refined units into the US on Section 232 tariff expectations, alongside wider market appetites to hold strategic hard assets. However, set against a backdrop of historically elevated global stocks, anticipation of a relatively balanced refined market and a globally divergent view from speculators, the justification for record high copper was put into question. In this article we look at the realities in the copper market at present, in which global stocks and stocks ex-US have drawn down to their lowest level in seven months and February 2024 respectively. Are we at the start of copper’s physical market reflecting real world tightness and what does this mean for copper prices?
Natalie Scott-Gray
- Base Metals
Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 30
July 30 – The Fed held steady as expected, but in a divided decision as three of the twelve FOMC members dissented in favor of a 25-basis point hike. That end result, coupled with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s subsequent press conference, struck a notably hawkish tone—no surprise given the rise in real rates and the expected path of policy since the Fed’s last meeting, developments Warsh also highlighted. Part of this hawkish tilt was Warsh unequivocally rejecting any tolerance for above-target inflation, reiterating “there is no soft implicit target—not on this Committee’s watch. There is only a target, and it is 2%.” He also acknowledged that five-plus years of above-target inflation had damaged public confidence in the Fed’s commitment to that 2% target, while arguing that credibility now depends on delivering actual price stability rather than relying on guidance. The new Fed Chair has obviously inherited a very difficult situation, growing more complex seemingly by the day, though this morning’s employment and inflation data both look to provide something of a sigh of relief, however brief. Traders will likely take some time to adjust to the new era at the Fed, with an explicit emphasis on providing less forward guidance, but as we’ve seen time and again, the market will find a way to adapt.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Brazil Coffee Exports Push Global Shipping to the Limit
Brazil’s expected record coffee exports are intensifying competition for vessel space during the Port of Santos peak season. Exporters may need to prioritise reliable schedules and secure allocations over the lowest available freight rate.
Editorial Team
- Coffee
Gold and Silver Are Caught Between a Firm Dollar and Rising Yields
Gold and silver have steadied, but the pressure has shifted from the charts to the macro backdrop. A firm U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields and U.S.-Iran tensions now hold the key to the next move.
Editorial Team
- Precious Metals
Why Global Diesel Markets Have Stopped Following Crude Oil's Lead
Diesel and gasoil prices have been climbing well ahead of crude oil, driven by refining constraints and export restrictions rather than the Middle East routing story alone. StoneX Director of Energy Market Strategy Alex Hodes explains why diesel now trades on its own structural logic instead of tracking crude oil's price moves.
Editorial Team
- Energy
Fertilizer’s Hidden Chokepoints Stretch from Hormuz to the Nord Stream
Fertilizer supply now depends on a handful of contested shipping lanes and pipelines stretching from the Middle East to Northern Europe. Here is how the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Russia’s shadow fleet and the Nord Stream pipeline are reshaping where nitrogen, phosphate and potash actually move.
Editorial Team
- Fertilizers
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