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Rate hike expectations are building in Europe just as an energy supply disruption drives the inflation the central bank is responding to. This piece looks at why tightening into a supply shock leaves European equity valuations squeezed from both ends.
Explore what VIX levels have historically signaled for S&P 500 returns, including the volatility “Goldilocks Zone” associated with stronger 12-month performance.
The Australian dollar has climbed in seven of the last eight weeks, and the driver sits less in Australia than in a shifting view of the U.S. rate path. Michael Boutros traces how a repriced Federal Reserve timeline has moved flows across the major currencies and left the Aussie leading them.
Corporate profits are rising and the S&P 500 keeps setting records despite a long list of global risks. Michael Lytle of StoneX Wealth explains why the profit cycle has become the signal that decides how much risk markets can carry.
The UK labor market is weakening across hiring, vacancies and payrolls, yet average earnings are still running warm enough to complicate the easing story. The split between private and public sector pay is what leaves the Bank of England without a clean signal in either direction.
For more than a decade, central banks absorbed government debt for policy reasons rather than for return, and that made them almost indifferent to price. As those holdings roll off, the investors left holding the bonds are the ones who count the risk, and the long end is repricing accordingly.
India's wedding season begins in late November, but the silver that supplies it moves months earlier through fabricators and jewelers rebuilding inventory. That restocking flow is a separate event from consumer buying, and this year the two are pulling in different directions.
Global dairy trade moves through contested sea lanes in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and the Black Sea, and the cost of crossing them is rising. The direct hit to dairy markets is small, but it is changing when commercial buyers choose to commit.
Russian fertilizer exports have concentrated into the Baltic after the Black Sea and Ukrainian routes closed, and Ukraine has now shown it can reach those ports. Phosphate is the input most exposed, because producing it depends on imported ammonia and sulfur that travel the same disrupted corridors.
Russian fertilizer exports have concentrated into the Baltic after the Black Sea and Ukrainian routes closed, and Ukraine has now shown it can reach those ports. Phosphate is the input most exposed, because producing it depends on imported ammonia and sulfur that travel the same disrupted corridors.
Aluminum inventory on the London Metal Exchange looks like a comfortable cushion until you check what is actually sitting in the warehouses. Almost all of the on warrant metal outside China is Russian origin, and that changes what tightness means for Western buyers.
Softening U.S. data has not weakened the dollar, because hawkish Federal Reserve commentary is holding rate hike expectations in place. James Stanley sets out what would have to break before dollar yen turns.
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