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By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville explains why buyers are now facing the toughest fertilizer decision-making dilemmas since 2008.
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“Chinese domestic values have jumped overnight on the rumor.” Linville notes that export rumors are ranging from token July shipments to a full scale restart. The very breadth of stories signals uncertainty, yet even chatter alone pushed local Chinese prices higher—an effect Beijing will be watching closely.
Suppliers have “no product payable to be found until June.” Distributors being allocated June tonnes have been told to price immediately or lose them. With retailers switching demand to urea, prices are climbing “in ways that we’ve never seen before,” leaving little room for negotiation.
North American phosphate values are “stupidly low” in supply but historically high in price, yielding the worst corn-to-phosphate ratio since 2008. Back then, corn fetched USD 6 8 per bushel, but today it is closer to USD 4.50, magnifying the squeeze. Without a surge in Chinese exports or a slowdown in Indian imports, Linville sees no natural reset.
“Buyers either buy expensive fertilizer and risk overpaying, or they wait and risk not having enough product.” With half the year already gone before China might re-enter the market, retailers and growers must decide whether security of supply outweighs price risk. The 2025 season may hinge on which side of that choice they pick.
The Farmer Fertilizer Focus Plan will lift the veil on market trends, factors to watch for, and unique perspectives to consider for your operation, helping you make more informed, financially beneficial decisions. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free 14-day trial.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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