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By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region
Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst, explores the forces shaping the copper market, from mine closures to China’s demand outlook.
Copper prices in 2025 have been heavily influenced by US tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cuts and a sharp fall in arbitrage between COMEX and LME. Scott-Gray notes that copper is returning to its traditional role as a bellwether of global growth as fundamentals regain focus.
Mine output has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, with major disruptions across the DRC, Indonesia and Chile. “Freeport-McMoRan has suspended all operations at its Grasberg mine”, a development that will cap supply until 2027. New projects are expected in Zambia, Mongolia and Chile, but risks remain high.
Refined output is growing at just 1% this year, the weakest since 2020, due to tight concentrate supply and negative treatment charges. While smelters outside China have closed, Chinese production remains strong, supported by state funding and byproduct credits.
Copper demand growth has slowed to 2% in 2025, with China’s renewable energy, AI and EV sectors offsetting declines from construction. Looking ahead, a global recovery cycle and China’s infrastructure push will support demand, though risks from tariffs and geopolitics persist. Structural deficits are likely to sustain investor interest and price volatility into the decade’s end.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Natalie Scott-Grey, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst
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