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By: Kathryn Rooney Vera, Managing Director and Chief Market Strategist
Quick highlights:
Can stock market performance predict who will win the White House? Kathryn Rooney Vera, StoneX's Chief Market Strategist, analyzed the markets to find if there is a relationship. Her findings suggest the S&P 500 has a significant track record of forecasting election outcomes. But it's not foolproof.
"History shows the market's three-month run-up to Election Day often points to the winner," Rooney Vera recently explained to her subscribers. "It's been right 83% of the time." That's an impressive correlation, but it does leave room for error.
Rooney Vera’s analysis highlights what she believes are key S&P 500 levels to watch:
But Rooney Vera cautions against putting too much stock in these numbers alone. "The market matters, but it's just one piece of the puzzle," she says. Inflation and immigration policy, especially in swing states, could sway more voters.
The study also highlights when the S&P 500 got it wrong. Eisenhower's re-election and Reagan's 1980 victory bucked the trend. These exceptions prove that unique circumstances can upend market-based predictions.
Rooney Vera draws an interesting parallel to today's economy. "The inflation we're seeing now echoes the lead-up to Reagan's win," she notes. This adds another wrinkle to the forecasting challenge.
This analysis suggests investors and political junkies should consider the connections between markets and elections? But Rooney Vera encourages a broader view. "Look at the whole economic picture," she suggests. "And don't forget about regional issues that could tip the scales."
As 2024 approaches, it pays to keep in mind developments at the intersection of markets and politics. And that interpreting economic election forecasts calls for the rigorous application of both art and science.
To read Kathryn’s full analysis on S&P 500 and elections outcomes, click here .
For more in-depth analysis and insights from Kathryn Rooney Vera and the StoneX Strategy Team, sign up for their Macro Strategy insights.
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