DRC Bans Copper and Cobalt Exports - What Do We Need to Know?
DRC Bans Copper and Cobalt Exports - What Do We Need to Know?
Natalie Scott-Gray
- Base Metals
Zinc Market Faces Supply Rebound and Waning Demand
By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region
Zinc Market Faces Supply Rebound and Waning Demand
Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst, outlines how rising mine supply and slowing construction demand have made zinc the weakest base metal performer in 2025.
Key Takeaways
- Zinc demand has weakened as global construction slows
- Mine supply recovery is pushing the market into surplus
- China’s output growth adds to pressure on global prices
Weak Demand and Global Headwinds
Zinc has been the weakest performer in the base metal complex through 2025, with demand under pressure from the downturn in galvanised steel and a struggling property market in China. Broader global growth downgrades following new tariff measures have further limited advanced economy consumption.
Mine Supply Recovery and Surplus Outlook
After several years of tightness, robust mine supply recovery has eroded investor optimism. Global production growth is being driven by new and restarted projects in Africa, Peru, China and Europe, including the Tara and Ozernoye mines. This expansion is expected to shift the zinc market into surplus across 2025 and 2026, reducing price support.
China’s Expanding Output
China’s refined zinc output has climbed to a 17-month high, supported by higher ore availability and improved treatment charges. The upcoming ramp-up of the Kunlun smelter in Q4 2025 is expected to add 560,000 tonnes per year, narrowing the import gap though not turning China into a net exporter.
Regional Demand and Price Implications
With around half of zinc demand tied to galvanising steel, future consumption depends on renewed investment in construction and infrastructure. Scott-Gray notes that “growth in China is slowing while India and Asia ex-China may take the lead”. However, global uncertainty and muted investment remain headwinds that may keep zinc prices under pressure into 2026.
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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Natalie Scott-Grey, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst
- Base Metals
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