Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: John Kicklighter, Head of Market Research
Talking Points:
The US election is behind us, which means we have very likely passed the peak of the scheduled event risk through the back half of 2024. As we work out whether that transition will carry forward a responsive volatility applied to subsequent event risk or conditions will naturally moderate into seasonal expectations, we should remain vigilant. As far as themes, geopolitics is top of mind; but we are a few months out before the change of guard in the White House. Speculation is a powerful force and markets are well tuned to discounting expected developments, but the first Trump administration made far proclamations of plans than actual execution. Meanwhile, more traditional themes like growth and monetary policy have more tangible milestones ahead and may draw benefit from the general sensitivity of the market to shifting tides.
Chart of Multi-Market Volatility Indices (Daily)
Source: TradingView, John Kicklighter
For scheduled event risk on the docket ahead, the US CPI release for October is arguably the strongest combination of recognition and market relevance. This is not the FOMC’s preferred inflation measure – that would be the monthly PCE deflator – but it is the market’s favorite measure. And, the market determines volatility and trend development. At the policy meeting this past week, the Fed cut its benchmark another -25bps following September’s opening -50bps salvo; and the outlook was left wide open to interpretation. The focus seems to be on the employment side of the dual mandate, and the October NFPs was report raised some initial concerns. That said, the moderation in price pressures seems to have found a potential trough recently and the exit polls for the US election seem to indicate that Americans are far more concerned about inflation than the indicators themselves would suggest. We should be monitoring this indicator with an added political perspective.
Chart of DXY Dollar Index Overlaid with the Implied Fed Rate Change in 2025 (Daily)
Source: TradingView, John Kicklighter
Looking for a second outside the important fundamental spheres of US and Chinese fundamental matters, it is worth keeping an eye on the fourth largest economy in the world: Japan. The island nation is due to report the preliminary reading of its third quarter GDP reading, and there is will be natural comparison to the health of its largest counterparts – particularly as they are key consumers of Japan’s exports. There is a significant contribution of this particular economy’s contribution to global health, but this update is made more interesting owing to the stop-and-start stance of the Bank of Japan with its very nascent monetary policy tightening regime – and particularly after Shigeru Ishiba’s recent appointment as the country’s new prime minister. We’ve already seen Yen crosses stall out in their recovery for the Japanese currency, and the threat of seeing a broad return to progressive and extreme depreciation is palpable.
Chart of USDJPY and US-Japan 2-Year Yield Spread (Daily)
Source: TradingView, John Kicklighter
Finally for top fundamental event risk over the coming week, I would point out a run of event risk that will tap into a theme: China’s general health. With trade and domestic growth top of mind, we are looking at a run of important data over the coming week that will tap into key lending trends, domestic consumption and global connections of support. Looking past vehicle sales in the country – which can be an important proxy in itself – the October new yuan loans figure is particularly important given the ongoing dependency on liquidity in the country. That is a Wednesday morning release. Friday hosts the biggest concentration of macro event risk from the country with October figures of fixed asset investment, industrial production, house prices and retail sales among a few other reports. One other area of interest worthy monitoring: earnings. In particular, China’s largest company by market cap, Tencent, is due to report Wednesday with insight into the tech sector in the country. For more core economic insight, Alibaba’s update Thursday will offer critical insight to domestic consumption trends.
Table of Major Global Macro Events Scheduled for Week
Source: John Kicklighter, StoneX
-- Written by John Kicklighter, Global Head of Content
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A softer run of U.S. data is doing more to move the U.S. dollar than any chart, with a jobs report and an inflation print set to land back to back. A cooler U.S. CPI report would hand the Federal Reserve room to ease, and that prospect is already loosening the dollar's grip.
The euro-dollar has bounced off multi-year support, but the more important shift is happening in interest rate expectations. As bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike fade, the U.S. dollar is quietly losing the tailwind that carried its recent strength.
The U.S. dollar is the single biggest swing factor for gold and silver, and its long-term trend is now being tested. A confirmed turn in the dollar could reset the outlook for precious metals, either capping them further or opening room toward new records.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
