Global Demand Sends Australian Beef Exports to Record Level
Ripley Atkinson, StoneX Livestock and Commodity Broker, shares his insights on the Australian cattle market and its record-breaking export performance.
Key Takeaways
Australian beef exports are on track for a record year in 2025
Price divergence continues across cattle categories
Volatility poses challenges for producers’ profitability
Price Divergence Across Cattle Markets
Atkinson highlights the recent divergence in cattle prices. While restockers and cows have come off recent highs, feeder cattle prices remain strong. He notes that cow prices fell by around 5% due to slower processing chain speeds and high freight costs from Queensland to Victoria. These factors, combined with processing costs and uncertainty over Brazilian tariffs, have pressured some markets.
Volatility in the Feeder Market
The Queensland feeder market has seen volatility rates of 10–12% over the past year, equivalent to swings of up to $75,000 annually for producers handling 420–500 kilo cattle. Atkinson cautions that such volatility can significantly impact a business’s ability to operate effectively, particularly given the increases observed in recent weeks.
Slaughter and Production at Multi-Year Highs
ABS data due next week is expected to show quarterly slaughter volumes at their highest level since 2015, surpassing 2.325 million head. Carcass weights remain strong above 307 kilos per head, supporting beef production forecasts above 700,000 metric tonnes, a new record for the industry.
Record-Breaking Beef Exports
In July, exports reached 150,000 metric tonnes, up 16,000 tonnes from June’s record. Year-to-date figures are already 120,000 tonnes higher than the record year of 2024. Atkinson forecasts 2025 exports at 1.531 million tonnes, a 12% increase on last year. He emphasises that strong global demand continues to absorb Australia’s high production levels.
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----Expert: Ripley Atkinson, Australian Livestock and Commodities Manager for StoneX
Meats & Livestock
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