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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 13

November 13 – Stock futures are pointing to a cautiously higher open as producer level inflation again accelerates to multi-year highs in October, albeit less than feared. The VIX is cooling to start the day, off roughly 3.7% to trade right at 18 at the time of writing. The dollar is quietly higher, touching another fresh 19-month high overnight and hovering near 103.21 at present. Treasury yields are just above unchanged at the front-end of the curve but more elevated at the long-end, with 2-year yields sitting at 4.865% while 10-year and 30-year yields are both up just above 4-basis points each to trade at 5.145% and 5.475%, respectively. Crude oil prices are also quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.5% on the day to trade near $89.10 and nearby Brent up 0.9% to trade near $96.70. The ags are mostly higher overnight amid a fresh reality check on the commodity fundamental impact of the Russian/Ukrainian war after headlines of ongoing negotiations dominated earlier in the week.

Mike CastleFri, 13 Nov 2026, 14:15

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Farm Policy Moves to Democrats and Farm Aid Eligibility Takes Focus

Democratic control of Congress moves farm policy into committees that can reconsider how farm aid eligibility is defined. Beneath the food stamp dispute holding up the farm bill, provisions on biofuels and animal welfare already draw support from both parties.

Editorial TeamFri, 13 Nov 2026, 11:51

Grains & Oilseeds

WASDE Corn Yield Falls as Argentina and Brazil Largely Fill the Gap

The WASDE cut to the U.S. corn yield sparked a grain rally, yet larger crops in Argentina and Brazil absorbed most of the loss. The full report also lifted global corn stocks and trimmed EU import estimates that the market treated with doubt.

Editorial TeamThu, 12 Nov 2026, 14:33

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 12

November 12 – Stock futures are pointing to a lower open as the tech sector drags again, with market cap giant Nvidia looking to extend its rapid decline down to a nearly year-and-a-half low in pre-market trading amid the resignation of CEO Jensen Huang. This comes ahead of the company’s third quarter earnings set to be released next Tuesday (11/17) that were already going to be closely scrutinized given increasing investor skepticism regarding the eye-popping costs of the ongoing AI buildout. The VIX is pushing higher to start the day, up close to 7% to hang near 18.7 at the time of writing. The dollar broke above the 103 level for the first time since April 2025 earlier in the session but now hangs near 102.9, only modestly in the green. Treasury yields are pushing higher again after yesterday’s market closure, with 2-year yields up another 7-basis points to trade at 4.797%, 10-year yields up 4-basis points to trade at 5.028%, and 30-year yields up 2-basis points to trade at 5.37%.

Mike CastleThu, 12 Nov 2026, 14:15

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El Niño Weather Risk Moves Grain Trade and Shifts Focus to Exports

El Niño weather risk is starting to move corn and soybean trade, shifting attention from the size of the U.S. harvest to global supply. Strong Brazilian crops and export demand decide how comfortable that supply looks.

Editorial TeamThu, 12 Nov 2026, 08:29

Grains & Oilseeds

South American Grain Report

Brazilian soybean, corn and sorghum exports in October; Sorghum exports hit record high; Comments on the November WASDE for Brazil and Argentina

StoneX Intelligence BrazilWed, 11 Nov 2026, 14:30

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 11

November 11 – Stock futures are pointing to a stronger open, particularly in the tech heavy Nasdaq following a fresh sigh of relief for the sector after CoreWeave’s third quarter earnings results. The mood on Wall Street is calming as the VIX is notably lower to start the day, currently hovering at its lowest level in a week near the 18.4 mark. The dollar is adding to yesterday’s gains after the hotter than expected October CPI data reinforced fears of a more hawkish Fed, currently up 0.5% to trade at 102.73. Treasury yields surged higher yesterday but markets are closed today in observance of Veterans Day; 2-year yields yesterday settled 20-basis points higher at 4.748%, 10-year yields just under 14-basis points higher at 5.00%, and 30-year yields 10-basis points higher at 5.358%. Crude oil prices are bouncing from sharp early week losses, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day to trade near $87.20 and nearby Brent up 1.5% to trade near $92.90. The ags are mixed to start the day, with corn and soybeans showing modest losses after the big post-WASDE jump yesterday, while the wheat complex is clinging to small gains at the break following fresh escalations between Russia and Ukraine that we’ll dive into below. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open in classic turnaround Tuesday fashion as they look to take back some of yesterday’s sharp gains. The VIX is up 5.7% from yesterday’s close, currently sitting just above 21, though well below the recent highs above 28 seen last week. The dollar is looking at a turnaround Tuesday as well, up 0.3% to trade near 102 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are sharply higher to start the session, with 2-year yields up near 15-basis points to trade near 4.70%, 10-year yields up 9-basis points to trade near 4.955%, and 30-year yields up 6-basis points to trade just below 5.32%. Crude oil prices are continuing lower amid de-escalatory rhetoric coming from the Trump administration, with nearby WTI down 2.2% on the day to trade below $84.50 while nearby Brent is down 3.4% to trade near $89.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly lower at the break.

Mike CastleWed, 11 Nov 2026, 13:57

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 10

November 10 – October CPI inflation data came in slightly hotter than expected this morning, with headline CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month and core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, both of which were 0.1% above the average analyst estimate. Year-on-year figures were not published due to last October’s government shutdown, but we can interpolate using the CPI index itself. If we take the average of last September and November’s CPI index of 324.461, it would imply a headline CPI increase of 4.0% year-over-year, which would be an acceleration from the 3.7% seen in September and the hottest reading since May. Given the major build-up of inflationary pressures already seen at the producer level, it’s no surprise to see the pass-through to the consumer taking place, as we’ve been pointing to for months. Stock futures are pointing to a lower open in classic turnaround Tuesday fashion as they look to take back some of yesterday’s sharp gains. The VIX is up 5.7% from yesterday’s close, currently sitting just above 21, though well below the recent highs above 28 seen last week. The dollar is looking at a turnaround Tuesday as well, up 0.3% to trade near 102 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are sharply higher to start the session, with 2-year yields up near 15-basis points to trade near 4.70%, 10-year yields up 9-basis points to trade near 4.955%, and 30-year yields up 6-basis points to trade just below 5.32%. Crude oil prices are continuing lower amid de-escalatory rhetoric coming from the Trump administration, with nearby WTI down 2.2% on the day to trade below $84.50 while nearby Brent is down 3.4% to trade near $89.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly lower at the break.

Mike CastleTue, 10 Nov 2026, 14:22

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 9

November 9 – Stock futures built on Friday’s consolidation, as value buyers slowly re-entered the market overnight. We’ll get key inflation data this week, with the consumer price index for October scheduled for release tomorrow, followed by the producer price index on Friday. Scheduled negotiations regarding both major wars on commodity logistics will also take place over the next few days. The VIX slid lower to trade near 23, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.83% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.52%. WTI crude oil prices are near $87, while Brent trades near $94 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex traded mixed to weaker overnight, with traders now focused on tomorrow’s big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 09 Nov 2026, 14:25

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 6

November 6 – Volatility remains high on Wall Street this morning, as we add the monthly jobs report to the post-election market correction. The Nasdaq dropped sharply on Thursday amid a fear that the Democrats taking over Congress would create major challenges for tech companies – especially those involved with AI. It’s trying to bounce this morning, but the headlines over AI risks continue to flow. Today’s jobs report should help to redirect some of that focus momentarily, but the possibility of more volatility clearly remains with us. As such, the VIX – Wall Street’s “fear index” – is trading near 27 at this hour. My observation over the decades is that commodity assets struggle to sustain rallies when the VIX is above 30, unless that asset has a strong story of its own. The dollar index is trading near 102.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.86%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%. WTI crude oil is trading near $91, while Brent trades near $98 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector traded mixed overnight, with wheat posting double-digit losses, while corn and soybeans were either side of unchanged in early trade.

Arlan SudermanFri, 06 Nov 2026, 14:21

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Nov WASDE Estimates

Craig TurnerThu, 05 Nov 2026, 17:40

Grains & Oilseeds

Brazil's Distillers Grains Market Runs on Logistics, Not Export Totals

Brazil's distillers grains market is shaped by regional logistics around ethanol plants in Mato Grosso, not by national export totals. Rising corn ethanol output has absorbed China's growing demand, and the DG to corn price relationship shows if that balance holds.

Editorial TeamThu, 05 Nov 2026, 16:04