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Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 26

June 26 – Chip stocks weighed on stock futures overnight, contributing to general weakness across the board as Iran tries to take control of the Strait of Hormuz once again, testing the fragility of the ceasefire. The VIX elevated to trade near 21 this morning, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.40%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.10% as the yield curve steepens a bit this morning. WTI crude oil traded back below $70 per barrel this morning, as Brent traded near $73, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mostly weaker as well ahead of the weekend.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 25

June 25 – Stock futures pushed higher overnight, led by the tech sector, ahead of a plethora of key economic data released this morning, including durable goods orders for May and PCE inflation data. That data gave another initial modest push to those gains when released. The VIX is trading below 18 at this hour, while the dollar index trades near 101.6. Yields on 20-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%. WTI crude oil made new post-war lows this morning below $69 per barrel on reports that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, while the grain and oilseed sector was mixed, with corn and wheat prices again under modest pressure while soybeans posted modest gains.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Iran, China and the Unconfirmed Promises Keeping Grain Traders Guessing

With Iranian asset releases unverified and China's soybean purchase commitments untested, grain markets are trading on assumptions rather than confirmed flows. Arlan Suderman breaks down why the verification gap is the most consequential variable facing U.S. commodity prices right now.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 24

June 24 - The tech sector bounced today, allowing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to surge higher to post new record highs as crude oil prices continue to tumble to levels not seen since the first days of the Iran war. The VIX fell lower to trade near 19, while the dollar index remains firm near 101.5 after posting new 13-month highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.41%, supporting that tech recovery, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 4.15% as both remain under pressure today as inflation fears ease. Yet, the yield curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil traded near $70 per barrel at midday, after falling below that level earlier in the morning, while Brent trades near $74 per barrel. Wheat prices are bouncing at midday, while corn and soybean prices post modest losses.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Europe's Heatwave Creates Grain Market Surprises

A European heatwave is creating very different outcomes across grain markets. While maize faces heightened production risks, some traders believe wheat quality could improve, potentially creating export opportunities that few anticipated at the start of the season.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 24

June 24 – Stock futures bounced modestly overnight, following sharp losses in the tech sector on Tuesday. Investors are monitoring developments out of the Middle East while positioning for tomorrow’s pile of economic data, including the latest PCE inflation numbers. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, while the dollar index trades at fresh 13-month highs near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16% as the yield curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil prices are trading at fresh 16-week lows near $70 per barrel, while Brent trades near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were modestly higher as a rule overnight.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 23

June 23 - The tech sector continues to weigh on stocks at midday, as investors worry about the payback from AI investments, combined with rising interest rates. The VIX managed to slip below 20 by midday, but it remains elevated near 19. The dollar index continues to push higher to fresh 13-month highs, currently trading near 101.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.48%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $73 per barrel, while Brent trades near $77 per barrel. Wheat is leading the grains lower in seasonal weakness today, while soybeans consolidate higher on solid domestic demand and export hopes.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 23

June 23 – The tech sector came under heavy pressure again overnight, as investors worry about AI once again in the ebb and flow of market sentiment on the topic. The selloff was strong enough to push the VIX back above 20 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 101.3 – a new 13-month high. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.49%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.19%. WTI crude oil prices put in a new low for the move overnight, trading as low as $72.48 per barrel, although they’ve recovered roughly a dollar since, while Brent trades near $77 per barrel as oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz increases. Wheat prices were again under pressure overnight, while corn and soybean prices posted modest gains.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 22

June 22 - The tech sector came under pressure today as Treasury yields push higher, along with the dollar. The VIX is trading near 17, while the dollar index trades near 101.0, putting it on the cusp of posting its highest close in 13 months. That comes as 2-year Treasuries trade at fresh 16-month highs near 4.23%, while 10-year yields trade near 4.51%. WTI crude oil is trading near $75 at midday, while Brent trades near $78 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector came under pressure today, with the exception of soybean oil prices, where last week's weakness uncovered solid end user buying once again, providing a lift for the new-crop soybean contracts.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 22

June 22 – Stock futures were generally steady to firmer to start the week, with investors viewing U.S. / Iran negotiations with cautious optimism. The VIX is trading near 17 this morning, while the dollar index remains strong near 101.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.50%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded at fresh 16-month highs near 4.23%, as the curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil is trading near $75 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $78 per barrel. Wheat prices were modestly weaker this morning, while soybeans followed soybean oil higher. However, the stronger dollar provided headwinds for much of the complex this morning.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

China's US Soybean Pledge Faces a 10-Million-Ton Credibility Test

China committed to buy 25 million metric tons of US soybeans in the 2026-27 marketing year, but official forecasts and market skepticism suggest the actual figure could be 10 million tons lower. The gap between political commitment and commercial follow-through is now shaping how grain traders read every incoming export sale.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 18

June 18 – The rebound on Wall Street continues at midday, with the Nasdaq up 2.2%, S&P 500 up 1.0%, and Dow Jones up 0.3% at the time of writing. The VIX has fallen in turn, falling back to trade around 16.9 at midday after pushing as high as 18.8 yesterday. The dollar is adding to yesterday's gains, setting a fresh 13-month high around 100.8 earlier in the session and hanging just below that level at the time of writing. Treasuries are mixed on the day, with 10-year yields now just below unchanged as they hover near 4.443% and 2-year yields just above unchanged as they trade at 4.164%. Crude oil is continuing its decline in the wake of the MOU between the U.S. and Iran, with nearby WTI making a fresh low since early March at $74/barrel and nearby Brent doing the same as it trades around $77.85/barrel. That selling pressure continues to spill over to the broader commodity sector, with the ags mostly in the red at midday, save for some small gains in nearby feeder cattle futures.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds

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