Atlantic Storms, Caribbean Rains, and Coffee: Why Hurricanes Remain an Underappreciated Market Risk

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - As coffee traders assess Brazil's record crop prospects, falling certified inventories, and the potential impact of El Niño on future production, one weather threat often receives far less attention than it deserves: hurricanes and tropical storms.

Unlike frost in Brazil or drought in Vietnam, tropical cyclones rarely dominate coffee market headlines until disaster strikes. Yet history shows that a single hurricane making landfall in the wrong place at the wrong time can devastate production, destroy infrastructure, reduce quality, and alter export flows across some of the world's most important arabica-producing regions. While NOAA is forecasting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, the coffee industry has learned repeatedly that overall storm counts matter less than where a storm ultimately lands.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June through November, coinciding with critical stages of coffee development throughout Central America, the Caribbean, and southern Mexico. These regions collectively account for a substantial share of the world's washed arabica production, supplying the high-quality coffees prized by specialty roasters and premium blends.

This year, NOAA is projecting between eight and fourteen named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. The agency assigns a 55% probability of a below-normal season, largely because a developing El Niño is expected to increase vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for storms to organize and intensify. NOAA believes the suppressive effects of El Niño will outweigh the influence of unusually warm ocean temperatures that would otherwise favor a more active season.

For coffee producers, however, a quieter season offers only limited reassurance.

NOAA emphasizes that seasonal forecasts do not predict landfalls. Even during below-average years, a single hurricane can cause catastrophic agricultural losses. Coffee-producing countries that sit directly in typical Atlantic and Caribbean storm tracks—including Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and portions of southern Mexico—remain vulnerable regardless of whether the season produces eight storms or eighteen.

The coffee sector's vulnerability stems from the nature of the crop itself. Unlike annual agricultural commodities, coffee trees require years to reach full productivity. When hurricanes uproot trees, strip leaves, break branches, or destroy root systems, the damage can extend far beyond a single harvest. Replanting programs often require three to five years before production returns to normal levels, creating lingering consequences for both local economies and export availability.

Physical destruction is only the first layer of risk. Hurricanes often bring torrential rainfall to mountainous coffee-growing regions, generating floods and landslides that can prove even more damaging than wind. Heavy precipitation washes away fertile topsoil, destabilizes hillsides, and damages the steep terrain where many arabica coffees are cultivated. Excess moisture can also interfere with flowering, disrupt cherry development, reduce bean quality, and increase the incidence of fungal diseases such as coffee leaf rust.

Infrastructure damage frequently compounds these losses. Even when coffee trees survive a storm, washed-out roads, destroyed bridges, damaged electrical networks, and impaired processing facilities can prevent coffee from reaching export channels. In many producing regions, narrow mountain roads represent the sole connection between remote farms and export infrastructure. When those links fail, the impact on trade can persist long after the weather clears.

History provides numerous examples of these risks.

Hurricane Mitch in 1998 remains one of the most destructive storms ever to strike Central America. Honduras and Nicaragua suffered catastrophic flooding and landslides that damaged coffee farms, transportation networks, and rural communities. Entire mountainsides collapsed under the weight of relentless rainfall, while many producers lost not only their coffee trees but also the productive soil required for future cultivation. Recovery stretched across multiple years.

In 2005, Hurricane Stan battered Guatemala and southern Mexico. Although not among the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, Stan generated torrential rainfall that triggered deadly landslides across coffee-growing regions. Roads and bridges were destroyed, creating significant logistical challenges for moving coffee to market and exposing the vulnerability of mountain-based production systems.

Hurricane Sandy brought significant agricultural disruption to parts of the Caribbean in 2012, impacting coffee-producing areas of Cuba and Jamaica. While global coffee supplies were not materially altered, the storm highlighted the exposure of smaller specialty origins to extreme weather events.

Perhaps the most dramatic modern example occurred in 2017, when Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico's coffee sector. The storm destroyed approximately 80% of the island's coffee crop, uprooted thousands of trees, and severely damaged infrastructure throughout the mountainous interior. Years later, Puerto Rico's coffee industry was still rebuilding productive capacity and processing assets lost during the catastrophe.

More recently, Hurricanes Eta and Iota delivered a one-two punch to Central America during the 2020/21 coffee season. Striking Honduras and Nicaragua within weeks of one another, the storms damaged farms, roads, and processing infrastructure across two of the region's largest arabica exporters. The International Coffee Organization estimated losses in exportable production, while many producers faced prolonged recovery efforts amid widespread flooding and landslides.

Hurricane Julia in 2022 further demonstrated that even weaker systems can disrupt coffee production. After making landfall in Nicaragua and weakening into a tropical storm, Julia generated substantial rainfall across Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Costa Rica. While direct wind damage was relatively limited, elevated humidity increased disease pressure and raised concerns over coffee leaf rust and quality deterioration.

For futures markets, timing is often as important as intensity. Storms that arrive during flowering can reduce fruit set and lower the next season's production potential. Systems that strike during cherry development can affect quality and yield. Storms during harvest can cause cherry drop, increase moisture-related defects, and delay collection efforts. Weather events occurring during processing and export periods may disrupt logistics and shipping schedules long after production has occurred.

Ironically, the same El Niño that is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity has become an emerging source of concern elsewhere in the coffee market. Traders are increasingly focused on the possibility that El Niño could affect rainfall patterns during Brazil's critical September-October flowering period, potentially influencing the 2027/28 crop. In other words, while the Atlantic hurricane threat may be diminished this year, weather risk has not disappeared—it has merely shifted location.

As the industry enters the heart of hurricane season, the most important lesson from history is clear. Coffee markets often focus on major production estimates, inventory statistics, and macroeconomic trends, but some of the most significant disruptions have originated from a single tropical system making landfall in a key producing region. Even in a below-average hurricane season, one storm can reshape yields, quality, logistics, and export availability across the global coffee supply chain.

Alexis Rubinstein

Source: NOAA, USDA