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August '25 Farmer Fertilizer Newsletter - Urea

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

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August '25 UREA
 
Josh Linville
Fertilizer - Vice President
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
josh.linville@stonex.com
Major Global Urea Export Location Price Graphs

The intention of the below graphs are not to use to say "my price should be X based on this graph".  These prices are derived from an FOB price point average.  The intent is to show major global price movement trends.  Your values will likely have significant basis difference (similar to your local grain price being different than the traded market price).

This graph is labeled as MT in USD currency.

image-20250729120411-1
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
GLOBAL
I do not know what to tell you here.
Why I think urea prices will go higher globally:
  • India tenders keep fueling the fire
  • European production is still 75% of normal
  • Iran/Egyptian production has struggled
  • Chinese exports will still be well below normal

Why I think urea prices could fall globally:

  • Sudden Russia/Ukraine peace could send the market spiraling
  • China's export quota was increased from 2M to 3M tons
  • China hasn't exported much so far, could mean a slug of product looking for homes
  • The current price is extremely high vs grain values

So every market has a fundamental and emotional aspect of it.  Even that seems split:

  • Emotionally - the market seems to be ignorning any bearish news and is jumping at any bullish news
  • Fundamentally - it feels like prices should be lower.  Global values jumped huge on losing Iran/Egypt production.  That only accounted for 600K tons.  However, we then got 1M tons back from China.  Not to mention demand will be dodgy.

I do not know what to tell you here.  If I absolutely HAVE to make a guess, I think prices stay stable to higher at least until the India tender is complete.  However, I cannot help but have a gut feel that there is a dip coming...I do not know when...I do not know how...

 
NORTH AMERICA
Right now, N.A. urea values continue to move higher with global price ideas.  It isn't that we need to call on imports.  In fact, almost the opposite.  There is little need for them since domestic production can take care of demand.  Multiple nitrogen production plants across N.A. do make things tighter.  However, N.A. cannot get too cheap or it runs the risk of excessive exports.  It has to maintain a balanced approach (i.e. around $30 discount to Middle East replacement) to stay in that sweet spot.
But the threat of tariff's against Russia is scaring me.
President Trump is threating very heavy handed tariffs against Russia if peace between them and Ukraine is not found.  If those get put into place, it "should not" matter until we get to January when we need to call upon spot imports to meet spring demand.  However, we all know how this system works.  If those tariff's get put into place and it blocks one of the largest suppliers of urea to the U.S., we are likely going to see prices jump.
I'm going to hope that peace is found which leads to domestic and global urea prices falling.  However, I'm a realist and that doesn't look likely.  If those tariff's get put into action, prices are very likely to jump.
 
General Global Urea Information
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image 114884
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What has happened in the last 30 days?
One India tender ends, another India tender begins
Did you think this month might conclude the coverage of India and their purchase tenders?!!  Oh no, not at all!!
For those that might be new to the newsletter, India has a unique way of purchasing their fertilizer.  Rather than free flowing products like most other countries around the world, India "controls" it to a certain extent.  Their farmers do not see all the global price movements that most of the rest around the world see.  The government sets a low and steady price that all retailers must adhere to.  However, that price doesn't make sense vs global values so importers cannot bring in anything without taking massive losses.  To offset that, the government sets subsidy programs designed to pay the difference between global values and farmer values.  This gives the importing companies the confidence that they will get paid.
However, it doesn't stop there.  Rather than just letting a lot of different companies do whatever they want which may result in too much or too little product, the government controls the inflow.  When they decide imports are needed, they will tap a company to handle a purchase tender.  That company will announce to the world their buying intentions.  They will provide the date the offers are due, the date the product must ship, and sometime will even given the tonnage purchase goal.
Once the offer period ends, everyone that wants to participate and has been preapproved to participate will submit their bids.  There can be a massively wide range of values offered.  In order to make sure there is no funny business where friends get special/higher priced agreements, the government controls how the awards are handled.  The lowest price provided to each coast is set and called the "L1".  The importing company will then go up the line of the higher priced offers.  For those higher priced offers to participate, they have to drop their price to the L1.  If they agree, they sign a contract.  If they refuse, the importing company goes to the next highest offer and will continue doing this until they run out of offers or they hit their ton goal.
What the world enjoys about this process is that it lays the market wide open.  There is nowhere to hide.  You have to submit your best value and those values are shared with the world.  At the end of the tender process, the world knows what that actual price ideas are and how willing sellers were.  It generally helps to define the market in real time.
Now, since December 2024, India has been struggling with their tenders.  They have been falling far short of their tonnage goals:
  • December 19, 2024 
    • 1.5M ton goal
    • 185K tons secured
  • January 23, 2025
    • 1.5M ton goal
    • 559K tons secured
  • March 26, 2025
    • 1.5M ton goal
    • 885K tons secured
  • May 28, 2025
    • 1.5M ton goal
    • 229K tons secured
  • June 24, 2025
    • 2M ton goal
    • 1.46M tons secured

Other than this most recent tender, India has been striking out as world suppliers saw better opportunities.  However, this most recent tender was a sign of hope.  Few believed they would be able to reach the 1M ton mark given the global market at that time.  When everything wrapped up, they nearly reached 1.5M tons.  Well short of their 2M ton goal, but significantly better than expectations.  There was hope that the bigger tons meant that global supplies were better than thought and that India could wait on their next tender that could make the market quiet and as a result bearish.

Values did start to show signs of easing.  It was never anything huge, but little bits of information here and there.  Then India announced...

Many in the market, myself included, thought India could go several weeks before returning to buy another layer.  That was not the case.  On July 24th, IPL (company handling this purchase tender) announced a fresh buy attempt:

  • 2M ton goal
  • Offers due August 4th
  • Vessels to load by September 22

Any hope of prices sliding were shot down.  Quickly, international values moved higher.

The market has been acting odd recently.  Normally, there is a lot of bullish talk in the market as the India tender offer date comes.  The market gets "excited" with everyone inquiring everywhere about what they can buy and offer.  This round has been very subdued.  Other than the initial price surge, it has been very quiet.

For now, we are having to sit back and see what happens.  Either way, this will help set the tone for the next month or two for global urea markets.

 
Coming global urea market could be long/short at same time
This is going to be a weird story that is going to be hard to explain!!
Right now, a lot of folks that I talk to are pointing to the current India urea purchase tender and saying that it will help mop up a lot of excess tonnages around the world and leave the global S&D relatively tight afterwards.  They could absolutely be right.  India is targeting upwards of 2M tons.  Now, we have to wait and see how it plays out.  Offers may refuse to negotiate their price lower and India may fall far short of their tonnage goal.  It will mean more tons available in the market, but it will also mean suppliers are more bold in the following weeks in regard to price.
So on one hand, the looming global urea market could be very tightly supplied.
Then there is China.  In 2024, China shocked the world by only exporting 262K tons.  This was significantly short of their "normal" 5 to 5.5M tons.  That left a gaping hole in global supplies.  For 2025, the Chinese government appears to be loosening their export restrictions and had planned to allow upwards of 2M tons.  While still far short of normal, it was a great increase from 2024.  Then, in recent months, the government reviewed the market and improved the export quota to 2025...with a twist.  The tons were going to be allowed to be exported to everywhere...except India.  There is a lot of historical bad blood between China and India.  Then there is the Chinese fear that their exporters could blow through the quota if they start participating in the massive Indian purchase tenders.  In order to keep a better handle on things, it was decided to not allow India as a destination.
That is where things could get weird.
The "best" thing for the market would be for one of the larger exporters to participate with one of the larger importers.  It is a natural flow.  
Today, we could see a world being set up where most suppliers are relatively empty on supplies, but Chinese tons are still looking for homes.  In fact, the Chinese tons could be flooding the market in the coming months.  When looking at their export data for 2025, the January through June cumulative total is only 77K tons.  That leaves nearly 3M tons to be exported from July until December.  Another challenge is how China will approach exports as it nears the end of 2025.  No doubt the government will want to slow/stop exports in order to rebuild domestic supplies and force domestic values lower as they have done in recent years.  If that is the case, then we could have a situation where nearly 3M tons try to get exported and look for homes outside of India from July until October.  
Again, this could be a very weird market.  Most suppliers could report being very low on available inventories.  On the other side, we could see extremely motivated Chinese tons trying to find homes around the world.
Given how this year has gone so far, why would we expect anything less?
image-20250731100300-1
What does this mean for farmers?
This could mean a lot of confusion in an already tough period for farmers.
Obviously your economics are not looking very good for this year or for next year.  You and every other farmer is going to be out there looking for any sign of improvement.  Chinese urea tons could provide that hope...but it could be fleeting.
Honestly, at this point, I do not know how it all works out.  I've never seen anything like this in my near quarter century in the market.
 
Ukraine attacks same Russian nitrogen production facility
To add to the world chaos that is the urea market, the Ukraine/Russia war once again stepped in for another piece of news.
If you remember a couple months back, Ukraine launched a drone strike on a Russian nitrogen production facility.  This facility was linked to a large percentage of Russia's ammonium nitrate production.  For those unaware, ammonium nitrate is an excellent explosive product.  Rather than allow Russia to control and produce such an explosive, the drone attack successfully took the plant offline.
However, repairs were obviously going to be made.  A plant like that could not be allowed to stay offline.  Not only was it a major ammonium nitrate facility, but it also produced several other nitrogen products.  
Needless to say, Ukraine did not take kindly to the repairs...and in recent weeks, they struck it again.
It appears Ukraine was serious about wanting this plant offline and was not going to allow repairs to go untouched.  A quick overnight attack likely undid all the repair progress that had been made, though at this time no official reports of damage have been shared.
This hurts the world.  Russia is one of the largest nitrogen fertilizer exporters in the world and this facility was a big part of their production.  Not all of it.  Not anywhere close to all of it.  However, it was a bigger cog and having it offline reduces global supplies...and you know what happens when supplies get tighter.
The below link did an excellent job of detailing the story:
https://kyivindependent.com/drones-attack-chemical-plant-in-russias-sta…
What does this mean for farmers?
This plant being attacked again will delay it coming back online.  In fact, if you own the facility, do you even try to repair it?  It seems Ukraine is going to continue to attack and keep it out of production until the war ends.  If that is the case, why even spend the money and time repairing it just to have all those investments lost?
This lowers global supplies which gives market bulls another reason to justify higher prices.  It does not guarantee higher prices, it just adds another bull factor to the list.
 
Will high priced inputs/low priced grains impact farmers approach?
And now, the biggest story of August for almost every fertilizer.
THE PRICE IS TOO HIGH FOR UREA AND THE PRICE IS TOO LOW FOR GRAINS
Yeah, I've heard that a couple times about every fertilizer...and every single person was right.  Most every input is ridiculously high vs almost any comparison a person wants to make.
You know I like our ratio approach to finding value so let's talk about it from that perspective.
The graph just below shows the historical NOLA urea / corn ratio value going back to 2005.  I know it is a lot of lines.  I've included all of those years not so you can try and pick out certain years, but so that you can see just how high current values are vs what is considered normal.  That fatter red line is 2005, and it continues to scoot along the highest side of history.
We most recently have seen a NOLA urea barge trade at $460.  There are indications that it will go higher, but that is firm for now.  As I write this, the December 2026 corn price sits at $4.50/bushel.  Folks may have a different approach to what grain price to use.  Some will want spot because what they sell from the bins is what pays for their fertilizer.  Some may say that the coming December 2025 price is what should be used as the fall harvest income pays for fertilizer.  My POV is that any urea purchased today is being applied in the fall/spring to grow next years crop so December 2026 should be used.  No one is wrong as long as you make sure you that approach consistently on your graphs.  
So for me today:
$460 NOLA urea / $4.50 Dec '25 corn = 102 bushels of corn to pay for 1 ton of urea
If we just looked at the flat values, we might struggle to know what is good or bad:
  • Is $460 NOLA urea too high or low?  It is way too high if corn is $3.50.  It is great if corn is $8.
  • Is $4.50 corn too high or low?  Again, it is fantastic if urea is $250.  It is horrible if urea is $700.

When we look at the 102 ratio on the graph below, it takes any guesswork out of the equation.  It is high.  Very high.  Not record high.  We will leave that for phosphate.

So the question that continues to be asked is what will farmers and retailers do?  On the retail side, I think we will see them be much more conservative in their buying patterns.  They understand everything happening in the world, but their farmer customer is struggling and is going to be slow on buying their needs.  That leaves a lot of price risk with the retailer that they cannot handle.  On the farmer side, why would you get excited today?  The price is high, the grain price stinks, and many folks may have to go to the bank to get funding and who wants to have that conversation this far ahead of spring.

Overall, I do not think that nitrogen/urea demand will be significantly lower.  We still expect a big corn crop in 2026.  Farmers can reduce their P & K application rates without much impact to yield potential.  However, nitrogen is needed.  There is a direct correlation between nitrogen applied and potential yields.  Sure, there are alternative methods but for the most part, urea will be used.

So our POV is that overall demand should remain largely unchanged.  It will be the timing of demand, and that could make for an interesting market.

image 116799
What does this mean for farmers?
This could honestly spell trouble.
Farmers are going to want to drag their feet before buying their urea inputs and for very good reason.  But this could come at a cost.
If the farmer is refusing to buy their needs, the retailer is going to be conservative on their buying approach.  If the retailer is delayed, distributors and importers may be slow to bring in products.  It could lead to supply tightness and logistical cost bullishness if everything waits long enough.
Again, it is too early to be overly worried about this.  It is early August.  There is still plenty of time.
...but the older I get, the faster the calendar flips its pages.  The time to need to do something will come sooner than we think.
Where are current values in relation to the past

NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana 

Number 3 global importer in 2022

image-20250730185816-1

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - 18% or approximately $70 higher

Vs 90 days ago - -13% or approximately $65 lower

Vs 6 months ago - 19% or approximately $73 higher

Vs 1 year ago - 44% or approximately $138 higher

image-20250729120602-2

U.S. Midwest Average

Vs 30 days ago - 1% or approximately $6 higher

Vs 90 days ago - -13% or approximately $76 lower

Vs 6 months ago - 13% or approximately $59 higher

Vs 1 year ago - 35% or approximately $130 higher

 

U.S. Southern Plains Average

Vs 30 days ago - -2% or approximately $8 lower

Vs 90 days ago - -14% or approximately $80 lower

Vs 6 months ago - 10% or approximately $45 higher

Vs 1 year ago - 34% or approximately $125 higher

 

U.S. Northern Plains Average

Vs 30 days ago - -4% or approximately $22 lower

Vs 90 days ago - -12% or approximately $69 lower

Vs 6 months ago - 9% or approximately $40 higher

Vs 1 year ago - 40% or approximately $145 higher

 

Middle East

Number 1 exporter (as a region, not as individual nations)

image-20250730185847-2

Vs 30 days ago - 3% or approximately $15 higher

Vs 90 days ago - 21% or approximately $83 higher

Vs 6 months ago - 16% or approximately $65 higher

Vs 1 year ago - 37% or approximately $130 higher

image-20250729121055-4

Egypt

Number 4 global exporter in 2022

image-20250730185903-3

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - -2% or approximately $13 lower

Vs 90 days ago - 26% or approximately $100 higher

Vs 6 months ago - 13% or approximately $57 higher

Vs 1 year ago - 35% approximately $127 higher

image-20250729121304-5

 

Black Sea

Number 1 global exporter in 2022

image-20250730185916-4

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - -2% or approximately $10 lower

Vs 90 days ago - 16% or approximately $60 higher

Vs 6 months ago - 12% or approximately $48 higher

Vs 1 year ago - 33% or approximately $108 higher

image-20250729121456-6

China

Number 9 global exporter in 2022

image-20250730185932-5

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - 1% or approximately $3 higher

Vs 90 days ago - 67% or approximately $177 higher

Vs 6 months ago - 80% or approximately $197 higher

Vs 1 year ago - 37% or approximately $120 higher

image-20250729121607-7

Brazil

Number 2 global importer in 2022

image-20250730185946-6

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - -2% or approximately $8 lower

Vs 90 days ago - 17% or approximately $68 higher

Vs 6 months ago - 13% or approximately $55 higher

Vs 1 year ago - 28% or approximately $103 higher

 

image-20250729121725-8
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • India tenders keep excess inventories low until demand picks up - India locked up nearly 1.5M tons on their last purchase tender.  The current tender is targeting 2M tons.  Even if they hit their goal, there will still be more purchases ahead.  India's buying pace today is helping to remove excess product from the market.  Excess product helps put pressure on manufacturers.  Lack of it allows them to move prices higher.
  • Chinese exports get scaled back from current 3M ton goal - the current export quota for China was last heard to be 3M tons.  While still well short of their normal 5 to 5.5M ton average, 3M tons would still be a massive boost from 2024's meager 262K tons.  However, today's expectation is 3M tons.  If that number suddenly falls back to 2M or lower, watch out.
  • Further supply issues - there are a lot of supply issues that have happened in 2025.  Europe is still producing at 75% of normal.  Iran and Egypt have had on again/off again produciton rates.  Chinese exports are down vs normal.  If more additions to the list continue, global supplies get worse and prices get higher.
Bearish Factors
  • Chinese flows pepper the market July through October - January through June, China has only exported 77K tons.  Their 2025 quota is still believed at 3M tons.  There is a strong case to be made that they will start to slow/stop exports in November/December to focus on their domestic lead up to spring.  That could mean nearly 3M tons being exported between July and October.  That would be a lot in a little bit of time.
  • Buyers refuse higher prices - there does not seem to be a lot of excitement to buy urea at these values at this time.  Most demand has until spring before they start to apply it.  With farmer economics so poor, the supply side of the market may be surprised by the lack of demand.  The longer that happens, the more unsold inventories grow.  Right situation, that can cause sellers to drop price.
  • Russia/Ukraine ceasefire leads to peace - this is a low probability situation.  There is no indication that war is ending anytime soon.  But the chances are not zero.  If we were to wake up to the news that a peace has been found, we could see a big correction on nitrogen prices.  Russian exports could resume normal flows/destinations.  European natural gas prices could drop and allow nitrogen production to resume.  War time premiums could be removed.  China could resume normal exports with the world normalizing.  Again, low probability but a person has to have hope.
Where are the current urea/grain ratio values today

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 135 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
  • Spend 55 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA urea price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

 

image-20250729121743-9

 

image-20250729121755-10

 

image-20250729121813-11

 

image-20250729121840-12

 

image-20250729121905-13

 

image-20250729121932-14

 

image-20250729121947-15

 

image-20250729122001-16

 

 
Josh Linville’s Focal Points
  • Global reaction to India's "surprise" purchase tender - to start, India announcing their purchase tender was not a reaction.  Everyone knew that another one was coming, even after locking up near 1.5M tons last round.  However, it is how quickly they announced it that took everyone off guard.  They are looking for another 2M tons.  The shipment window covers most of September.  Will offers stay bold and push the price ideas higher?  Will this be the one that sees the market cut price to ensure sales?  With India looking for 2M tons, do offers need to lowball to guarantee a chance to sell?  Couple weeks will tell the story.
  • How Chinese exports act in the market - China could make for a very unique market.  On the one hand, we could see the global urea market "tight" with India continuing to soak up excess product.  On the other hand, there is still 3M tons to be exported from China that is not allowed to flow to India.  We could see the world tight "normal" supplies but loose Chinese supplies.  Could make for some interesting conversations.
  • Russia/Ukraine war conflict - as long as the war between Russia and Ukraine rages, the world will be on edge and markets will factor in fear from war time premiums.  However, a ceasefire between these countries could be the lynchpin that allows prices to correct lower.  It seems pretty low probability today, but the war cannot last forever.  If peace is found, it could return normal global trade flows, return Russian gas flows to Europe, lower European gas markets, return European nitrogen production, and could end with Chinese exports resuming normal as they see the world market "fixed".  That is a lot of dominos to fall, but watch for the first one.
  • Farmer/retailer reaction to high prices - how does one justify buying these types of prices in early August?  Unfortunately, there may not be another choice as values continue to shoot higher.  Given all the global situations in the market today, all news seems to be bad news and leads to higher prices.  However, farmers and retailers still have power.  The market believes that purchases need made by certain timeframes.  For things like the looming wheat run, this is true.  Time is running out and logistics are going to get harder/more expensive in the coming weeks/months.  However, for spring buyers, there is a lot of time.  There is no guarantee of year end prepays.  There is no guarantee of year beginning prepays.  The market could wait until the last minute...that would be hard on the system but in this situation, few care.

StoneX Ratio Calculation

The ratio calculation is derived from Bloomberg historical grains values as well as fertilizer values from StoneX, NPKFAS, and Argus.

The calculation is simply dividing the fertilizer price by each grain price.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

 

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