Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Sat, 25 Apr 2026, 00:24

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Lack of evidence to suggest herd rebuilding will occur in 2026, whilst value at current market rates continues to be found in breeding cattle.

Key Points

Australia isn’t rebuilding the herd in 2026 – an important situation to remember so as to ensure people don’t get false hopes of an uptick in pricing based off that “rebuild” – a price lift won’t be driven by rebuilding, it’ll be driven by buyer demand and rainfall.
Seller paralysis very much evident for producers at present – indecision has affected producers ability to lock away forward contracts with us and unfortunately miss opportunities to get ahead of this falling market.
Plenty of No Quotes in the market at a feeder level, processors similar – that’s all to do with the availability of supply currently as we turn the corner into a big month of May supply wise.

Supply

The numbers roll on in the yards – as per the below, the NQ’s you’re seeing from feedlots is a direct result of the luxury of choice they have currently for numbers – processors much the same
- Its hard to call when it’ll end, but in May I believe we’ll see a very big month supply wise as the north really gets going, so expect to see further heavy supply pressure for the foreseeable future.
Got some mail from the Wagyu conference ( I didn’t go) and chatter in Brisbane this week, about differing views whether we’ll rebuild this year – Beef Central’s James Nason wrote a good piece on it – we’re not rebuilding in 2026, we’re liquidating.
- Its important from a structural, cyclical perspective to understand that so people don’t hang their hats on an analyst’s call expecting cattle prices to rise off the back of a “rebuild” – you only need to look at the liquidation through Northern NSW to realise we’re a long way from a rebuild.
NLRS weekly cattle kill last week hit 164,883 head, when adjusted for ABS reporting differential, the figure represents over 206,000 head processed for the week – easily the largest in modern processing history or since the 1970’s.

Demand

Reluctance across the board I would call demand – there’s a fair number of No Quotes in the market at a feeder level at present which is indicative of the supply available to feeders – many staying a month or so forwards but very few are going any further.
Producers feeling deflated I think and that’s being reflected in weaker restocker prices – I constantly raise this aspect of markets and its coming home to roost now and that’s confidence and its role in demand is critical to pricing outcomes.
Cattle with weight continue to be in high demand – typical of drought markets where a lack of that heavier supply comes sharply into focus – expect this to remain until Spring of 2026 at the earliest.

Price

Rarely in markets do you see restocker cattle at discounts to feeders – only in drought markets is that a common occurrence, and at present we’re seeing exactly that – backgrounders love it on a trade sell / buy perspective. Now its about protecting margin on that trade as prices continue to ease.
Cows and calves are presenting exceptional value at the minute for those that can handle them, southerners still seem a little tentative to step back into breeding cattle, but I believe if values keep declining the smart operators may step into breeders earlier than I expected.
- $2,500 at Dubbo’s store sale last week, with a weaner at $700-$1,400 and the cow itself worth $1,600 plus it makes a lot of commercial sense.
There is a real sense of seller paralysis at present in the forward contract markets – beef producers are hoping and praying ( I believe) that miraculously something will change to shore up this market.
- The indecisiveness to manage risk or appetite to do so in a month of falling markets is a problem for sellers.
- For example, 6 weeks ago you could have sold the downs market at a $4.60 - $4.80 into the middle of the year, and now you’d be lucky to contract cattle at a $4.40 for the same time… a loss of 40c/kg lwt in 6 weeks because of indecision and not “liking” a price…
Where to next for markets? I think its more of the same in the short term – there’s a lack of reasoning to suggest otherwise.

Weather

SA & WA still looking the goods for a rain event over the next 10 days – dry elsewhere across the country.

Meats & Livestock

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