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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

The month of May to be season defining for cattle prices as confidence continues to lift on southern rain. 

Latest episode of the podcast comes out today– back on markets this week where I cover the month of May, the price complex and provide an update on Angus / Flatback spreads. The Year to Date beef exports are also touched on, particularly the decline we’ve seen in volumes to the Middle East.

Key Points

  • The month of May is going to be season defining from a markets and price perspective – with a multitude of factors and moves to really clarify price direction this month. 
  • Feeders being well supplied with cattle out of the north has meant that despite producers best efforts, grids have remained stubbornly stable in the past fortnight with little movement either way.
  • A northwest cloud band due in week 3 of this month is the next major weather feature to watch

Supply

  • Rains in the south have really shortened numbers this week, evidence in the rally in slaughter prices across the east coast.
  • In the north, feeders are very well supplied with big runs and lines of cattle out of northern QLD as first round musters begin to really kick into gear conversations this week have indicated.
  • In line with my estimates last week, April 2026 exports hit 140,943 metric tons, and Year-to-April export volumes are now 15.5% or 68,000 metric tons ahead of YTD 2025 volumes.
    • This is discussed in further detail in the podcast tomorrow, but I believe we’re seeing exports act as the lead indicator to slaughter & Q2 ABS slaughter numbers released in August will show strong YoY growth in slaughter volumes as well.
    • 2026 slaughter volumes may nudge 10 million head.

Demand

  • Feeder grids have remained very stable for the past fortnight, with little movement either way, on both Angus & Flatbacks – clearly feedlots are well supplied and despite producers best efforts to sit on their hands, feeders are comfortable holding rates and waiting for the numbers to come forwards, which is why this market hasn’t seen an uptick like some other categories.
  • Rains have continued to lift the mood of the market and conversations indicate the panic seen in late March / early April has subsided, with producers generally optimistic and some to an extent, bullish, on the outlook for the sector.
  • Where to next? The demand complex is going to solidify over the next month on slaughter & feeder cattle – particularly around southern competition – listen to the podcast to get the full run down.

Price

  • As identified last week, southern processors have ramped up competition in northern markets, both direct and in the yards, to secure slaughter supply, with the south shortening on the back of excellent rains.
  • Its hard to measure, but chatting with producers in Northern NSW – its something we don’t talk about on cows, but the premiums gained if they grade MSA are very significant, and a declining rate in the yards may look disparaging, but when an MSA graded premium is added, prices are very strong for producers supplying those types of cattle at present – we’re talking north of $8.50 on an MSA graded cow.
  • Angus to flatback spreads based on Argus Media prices are currently at 71c – 13c/kg lwt higher than the corresponding week in 2025. The difference this year is that widening has been driven by the sharp sell off in flatback cattle rather than a rally in Angus rates.
  • Cows could go on a little bull run after being oversold in the past few weeks, particularly with shorter supply in the south coinciding with stronger supply out of northern markets as musters deliver volume.
    • Keep in mind Brazil for late winter hitting its China quota – despite our best efforts that supply competition and pressure is the next headwind for the cow market.

Weather

  • A northwest cloud band due in the next fortnight is the major system to watch, due to bring good falls for SA, VIC, TAS & Southern NSW – further adding to a contraction in supply out of these regions and price pressure on the upside for slaughter cattle.
    • This map doesn’t show it but there’s broad model alignment for W3 May.

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