Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Thu, 21 May 2026, 23:44

Add us as preferred source on Google

Market lift continues as supply shortens driven by strong weather system - feedlot buying demand caught with short physical positions

Latest episode of the podcast comes out today – where I break down the ABS Q1 data release on slaughter and production – explaining what these numbers mean at a producer level and how we’re seeing early signs of the production side beginning to transition.

Key Points

Activity and selling interest in the StoneX Feeder cattle forward contract has lifted substantially since Monday.
Buyer uncertainty about the market outlook has only intensified recently – a good reminder that supply chains typically are more attuned to external market factors than the production level.
A wet June on the forecast for the broader south has the Capacity to really set these regions up to play a key role in demand for light cattle in Spring 2026.

Supply

Shorter numbers across the board – with rain falling in a larger than expected area, numbers through the yards pulled back and direct consignments are dealing with the same challenges.
With rates improving, Queensland producers might feel compelled to sit back and watch the market before committing to selling – like they did last year – that situation could shorten numbers further if markets continue trending north.
Remember that the peak in the cattle cycle, in production terms is going to come in 2026 – looking forwards, supply or shortness of it, will gradually shape markets moving into 2027.
- The headlines for the high female slaughter rate (FSR) in liquidation territory, ignores the fact that the herd is far more productive than we’ve ever had, and the breeder herd is much the same, allowing for larger female kill numbers without liquidation.. so far anyway but that’s already begun to change.
- We’re a long way from a rebuild.

Demand

Feedlots remain uncertain on the current outlook – cost pressures remain high for feeders and despite the chatter, meat markets aren’t all beer and skittles – which is clouding the outlook and making it challenging for feedlots to plan from a demand perspective.
I had an interesting discussion today with a buyer – a lot of southern processors put cattle away on agistment / lease for processing in 2026.
- There’s a view the steadying in southern demand is due to southern processors filling plants with their own slaughter cattle coming off agistment rather than chasing additional supply out of the north – seems to me like we’re seeing this at present.
Additional southern buyer demand for cattle in northern markets on feeder cattle has the capacity to shape winter markets in 2026.

Price

As suspected, markets regathering strong momentum after a good drink for the broader east.
- The markets performance since late March is a further reminder to participants of how reactive and emotion the market becomes towards weather forecasts… be that dry or wet, you’ve seen evidence of both outcomes since the end of March..
So as the crossbred price has begun to lift – spreads on Angus versus crossbreds has narrowed – but I’d caution reading this as the “winter peak” – upside on Angus prices are coming, southern competition on Angus feeders will further add to this, as will the fact that there’s just not going to be many Angus feeders available.
- As brands & exporters scramble to secure numbers for a China program – that’ll contribute to.
Fundamentals say upside now exists for crossbred feeders in a similar vein to winter of 2025 – but what that doesn’t account for, is lack of China access, higher grain / ration prices, cut on the fuel excise tax, Brazilian competition & full feedlots.
Confidence fully restored at the restocker level – markets off on a tear this week in the yards – expect a similar result on the box tomorrow.

Weather

With a wet June forecast for large tracts of the country, driven by strong Northwest cloud band activity – seasonal recovery, soil moisture profile filling and potential for runoff will continue to set the south up for a large Spring – one to watch for light cattle demand moving forwards.

Meats & Livestock

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.