Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Thu, 02 Jul 2026, 23:57

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South American supply pressures US Manufacturing market, whilst early signs point to Herd rebuilding in Australia.

Key Points

What were supposed to be Angus & British feeders out of northern NSW later this year, exited the region earlier as weaners due to dry conditions – the supply is still there, they’ve simply changed postcodes.
We’re currently seeing an easing in weekly Victorian processing rates – is this a blip on the radar or is there a more structural situation unfolding at present in the state on slaughter rates?
The top end of rates producers are willing to pay for light cattle, to me indicate some FOMO and grass fever creeping into the market.

Supply

Based on my estimates, Q2 adult cattle slaughter reached 2.57 million head, the highest quarterly rate since June 1978 – that would represent a rise of 10% or 230,000 head Year-on-Year.
- This is based off an assumption that NLRS / ABS reporting difference for Q2 was 27.8% à the same as Q1 2026.
- Comparing carcase weights – Jun-78 carcase weights were 198kg/head, whereas Q1 2026 cwt’s were 317kg/head, growth of 119kg/head or 160%...
I still don’t think Australia is paying enough attention to Brazil generally as a market competitor for the longer term horizon… it sounds like I’m having a grouch, but currently they do 9 million head of grainfed cattle a year – if they lifted that, which they intend to, to say 50% of their 42 million head they process per annum – we’re competing head on, likely in Japan / South Korea / China & US on similar grainfed product – that’s a big challenge we’re going to have to face up to.
- Last year we processed a record 3.66 million hd of grainfed cattle and likely will top that again in 2026 but its only 1/3 of Brazil’s current grainfed throughput, to put things into perspective.
Albeit still very strong – you can see export volumes are taking a breather, June exports down to 146k mt– the pace of exports easing with China filled & South Korean quota now basically full also à the rush to move product into these markets has subsided.
Data is continuing to indicate that sheep producers across the broader east are positioning themselves to begin rebuilding numbers – short mutton supply, dear breeding ewe prices and continuing to weaken lamb slaughter suggests as much.
- I believe we may see shorter spring supply than usual this year as more producers retain both a larger share of their ewe lambs and also older mutton for another joining year to support this.
We knew the supply crunch was coming at some stage on Angus feeders and the recent rains last month have really solidified that dynamic – adding to the strong upside in pricing seen recently.
- Remember though, Northern NSW Angus cattle that were supposed to be sold as feeders later this year, were turned out as weaners to other regions – the supply is still there, they’ve simply changed postcodes.

Demand

Market demand remaining very solid throughout – early signs of FOMO and grass fever are being seen in the rates producers are willing to pay at the top end for light cattle.
We’re seeing an easing in Victorian weekly slaughter rates – a situation to monitor over the next few weeks to ascertain whether this is just a blip, or due to economics, those processors are winding back kill chain speed..
Now is the peak period one would think for Angus feeder cattle demand, for feeders on 150-200 day programs – when you think forwards about when those cattle exit programs and are needing to hit the China market in early 2027 before the safeguard quota is hit again..

Price

Intense competition from South American producers Argentina & Brazil, coupled with some price fatigue in the US market has weighed on imported 90CL prices recently, with rates well down on the highs hit in early 2026
- How does this begin to work its way through to slaughter cattle prices in Australia will begin to become clearer as the year progresses.
PTIC Cow & Heifer prices on the box have reached the highest levels in at least 12 months in last weeks sale – to me that suggests strong demand and an early indication of producers positioning themselves for a genuine herd rebuild.
Feeder cattle continue to lift, Crossbred prices are in the 98^th percentile on record at present – whilst on a quarterly basis have increased the most in Actual terms since Argus Media began reporting that market.

Weather

SA & the WD of VIC experiencing some of, if not their best seasons on record à setting the regions up for a monster spring as southern frontal systems are set to continue through July/ August.
The rainfall deficiencies are clear to see for central eastern regions – so despite the rains, Winter is still coming and there’s that to get through, but rain does good things for optimism.

Little in the way of rain over the next week – but a high begins to establish itself across the country which is what I was mentioning a few weeks ago – this will bring frosts and the true onset of Winter over the next week.

Meats & Livestock

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